Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Pops, Resistance at Prior Support

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Pops, Resistance at Prior Support

What's on this page

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels


Gold prices are up more than 1.8% since the start of the week with XAU/USD poised for a larger recovery off downtrend support into the close of the month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into the start of Q4. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we highlighted the risk for a larger correction in XAU/USD while noting that, “a close below 1920 needed to shift the focus back to the downside, exposing the August low at 1863 and the 38.2% retracement at 1837.” A break below the September opening-range lows last week fueled a decline of more than 3% with gold registering a low at 1848 before rebounding off confluence trendline support near the August extremes.

An outside-day reversal off the lows yesterday highlights the threat for a larger recovery with daily resistance eyed at the 2011 swing high at 1920 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline off the yearly high at 1935- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week / a larger reversal is underway. Daily support objectives unchanged at 1837 & the 100% extension at 1803- both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action sees XAU/USD rebounding off the lower parallel of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the late-August highs with the recovery now attempting to breach the median-line. Initial resistance eyed at 1902 backed by 1920 and 1935- a zone of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. The immediate advance remains viable while above 1880 with a break below the weekly open at 1861 needed to mark resumption towards 1837.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly Gold Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The gold price rebound remains constructive while within this near-term formation but the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside within the August decline. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of the upper parallels – be on the lookout for a swing high while below 1935 with a break below the weekly open needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. Ultimately, a larger correction may offer more favorable opportunities with a breach above the monthly range / 1992 needed to shift the broader focus higher again.

It’s worth noting that we’re heading into the close of the month & quarter – not the most friendly environment for intra-week swing trading. Stay nimble. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.55 (82% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are2.81% higher than yesterday and 9.15% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.01% lower than yesterday and 9.58% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 7% 5%
Weekly 37% -21% 8%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.