News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 19:00 GMT (15min)
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 1.10% Silver: 0.64% Oil - US Crude: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via
  • what a day for stonks $SPX $SPY judging by the way $ES started trading when futes opened last night, I thought we'd be dealing with a nasty situation Not so, ~90 handles of rip off the lows Price now testing resistance at the trendline drawn from pandemic lows
  • USD overextended, support on pullbacks expected.Tough hurdles ahead on EUR/USD recovery. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 86.42%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 71.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.80% US 500: 1.40% FTSE 100: 0.33% France 40: 0.30% Germany 30: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via
  • Here is the $DXY Dollar Index overlaid with an inverted Nasdaq 100 and the 20-day rolling correlation below it. Is this just a 'risk asset' vs 'safe haven' relationship or are the underlying fundamental considerations adding up to something that looks like it?
  • Technical Levels: US #Dollar, Euro, #Sterling, #Loonie, #Gold & #Bitcoin -
  • NY Fed accepts $765.1 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
  • Amazon’s annual Prime Day event runs from June 21 to June 22 this year The retailer has created an event that sees its sales surpass Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Positioning & Volatility Favors Bulls

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Positioning & Volatility Favors Bulls

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

The price of Crude Oil has continued to remain above the key daily support levels of October 10 of $49.17/bbl (Bullish Key Day), and October 13 of $49.34/bbl. So far, the price looks to be consolidating sideways that may favor a strong move higher could be the result as positioning gets set. We’re still a month away from the Vienna meeting where traders are hoping for a confirmation of a production cut from ~33 million barrels per day from OPEC to ~32.5 million barrels per day.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

Two positive notes that we alluded to in the title is the near capitulation of bearish positions, and the low volatility environment we see in crude Oil. Volatility has fallen to 15-month lows in both Brent & WTI front-end andsecond-month implied volatility. Low volatility in financial markets tends to favor stable moves higher.

Secondly, the number of hedge funds that are bearish Oil have dropped aggressively after the OPEC deal per the CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report. The net positioning is now the most bullish since 2014 as the aggregate bearish WTI bets have fallen over 50% in the last three weeks. This drop in bearish positioning has removed a major headwind for Oil, and any strong move higher will likely have fewer participants fighting and more joining.

Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE!

Daily Crude Oil Price Chart: 50-DMA > 100-DMA Keeps Bulls Awaiting Head & Shoulder’s Breakout

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Positioning & Volatility Favors Bulls

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT. Courtesy of TradingView

We have long been a proponent of a Bullish or Reverse head and shoulder pattern in Crude Oil that we discussed in our Q4 Oil Forecast. The Bullish pattern could take the once-battered commodity as high as $78/bbl.

The chart above shows a key technical development has occurred that tends to portray the path of least resistance. The development is that the 50-DMA (~2.5 Months of trading) has crossed above the 100-DMA (~5 months of trading data). You can see the highlighted circle showing when the 50-DMA has crossed above or below the 100-DMA, which has proceeded a strong trending move.

Monday’s bullish crossover could be the technical nail in the bearish coffin before we get the Bullish Head & Shoulder’s breakout above ~$52/bbl. For now, a break below the October 10thlow would turn us short-term neutral with the probability favoring a larger breakdown toward the 50-DMA near $46.50 before aligning with the longer-term bullish bias.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Monday, October 17,2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Positioning & Volatility Favors Bulls


To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.