News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed's Kaplan: - Expecting above trend growth for 2021 - Local and state governments need grants, not loans from Fed - Dow Jones via BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.23%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 66.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/TLR8MDhm9L
  • $USD $DXY | US Dollar Ripping Higher as Markets Swoon Link to Analysis via @DailyFX - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/21/usd-price-outlook-us-dollar-ripping-higher-as-markets-swoon.html #FX #Forex #Trading https://t.co/sVaB9lrjxu
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -2.40% Oil - US Crude: -4.81% Silver: -8.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/bO6biPyCKp
  • UK COVID alert level has moved from level 3 to level 4
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.56% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.70% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.93% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.14% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GIoEwFiMLN
  • The DXY continues to build on a rebound off long-term uptrend support and the Majors are poised for some decent moves this week. Get your #DXY market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/bjbs0gYT6I https://t.co/0OapScLca9
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.50% Germany 30: 0.49% FTSE 100: 0.32% US 500: -2.12% Wall Street: -2.95% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/nultu65SC6
  • UK PM Johnson is to announce a 10pm closing time for pubs tomorrow, according to the Sun
  • NI First Minister says local COVID 19 restrictions currently in place will apply to the whole of Northern Ireland from Tuesday
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Break Above 114 Favors Further Upside

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Break Above 114 Favors Further Upside

2017-07-07 20:32:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Want our fresh outlook for Q3? Access our free forecasts by clicking here.

Highlights:

On Friday, USD/JPY broke above 114 for the first time since May in large part due to persistent JPY weakness that was catapulted by a BoJ offer. The Bank of Japan offered to buy unlimited bonds at a fixed rate to help limit front end bond yields and emphasize their Yield Curve Control (YCC) approach to monetary policy. However, there were no tenders, which could mean we’ll see further JGB flattening in the near term as we see across the world. The takeaway message here is that the BoJ is actively engaged as other central banks (we’re looking at you ECB & BoC) are actively disengaging from their prior dovish stances, which could lead to persistent upside in EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Recommended reading: AUD/JPY may be another JPY pair to approach YTD highs

On the chart, the clearest show of Bullishness is the break above the Trendline drawn of the closing high in December. This development helps to show a potential behavioral change in the market that could align with the three-month high in many sovereign bond yields. The clear resistance worth watching is the 61.8% retracement point of the December to April range at 114.63 followed by the March high of 115.50.

Behind the price, the sentiment signal is painting a rather bright picture that should favor further JPY weakness and USD/JPY upside. Per the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, net JPY shorts from institutional speculators are at their highest levels since January showing an anticipation of further weakness. IGCS below helps to echo that view.

Join Tyler in his Daily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ET to discuss market developments.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Break Above 114 Favors Further Upside

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/JPY IG Trader Sentiment:US Dollar Remains a Buy versus Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Break Above 114 Favors Further Upside

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the JPY trend? Find out here!

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 46.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.15 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since May 04 when USDJPY traded near 112.516. The number of traders net-long is 12.6% lower than yesterday and 20.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.2% lower than yesterday and 25.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES