News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: #DailyfxGuides
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here:
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Copper is on track to make a sixth consecutive monthly gain as prices inch towards its all-time high. The global backdrop remains supportive despite a short-term pause in the rally. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Retail trader signals still hint that the Dow Jones and S&P 500 may be at risk, placing the focus on year-long rising trendlines to see if dominant upside biases hold.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The path for the Japanese Yen seems to favor the downside looking at a majors-based index. USD/JPY may rise within its Ascending Channel, but there is some scope for a healthy correction. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The British Pound’s recent slip lower against its major counterparts may prove short-lived. Key levels to watch for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Senate Democrats reach deal on jobless aid -BBG
DAX Trading Towards Gap-fill, Break of H&S Neckline

DAX Trading Towards Gap-fill, Break of H&S Neckline

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Post-ECB drop accelerates Friday, gap-fill likely
  • H&S top to trigger on a move much lower from here
  • Will require strong bullish price action to negate current bearish bias

What major factors are expected to impact the DAX & Euro in Q3? Find out here!

To end last week, we were noting DAX weakness post-ECB with the help of the euro continuing to bulldoze its way higher. The euro has been weighing on European stocks, but sharp event-driven moves really highlight this inverse relationship. The Thursday intra-day drop turned into a material down-day on Friday, which pushed the German index into the gap created following the first round of the French elections. We’re very near triggering the H&S topping formation, too, with price thus far today trading below the neckline. It’s all about the daily closing print below, though, to avoid fake-outs. A close below the neckline, whether today or a couple of days from now, is a likely scenario with the DAX still sitting over 150 points away from filling the gap.

The gap-fill is the first form of support, and below there the next level of price support comes in around 11941, the April low. The March low at 11850 could be of minor significance, but we’ll be placing more emphasis on the 200-day which currently clocks in just over 11800. Turning to the ‘textbook’ way of deriving the target once an H&S pattern triggers, the ‘measured move target’ clocks in at around 11645. It’s simply calculated as the distance from the head to the neckline subtracted from the point where price breaks the neckline.

What would take the bearish scenario off the table? First-off, given the DAX is trading in a major gap, to reiterate, probability favors this air pocket getting filled before finding any real support. In that case, as stated earlier, the neckline will have been broken and we’ll have our topping formation confirmed and down-move well underway. If the move lower is to be cut short we’ll need to see bullish price action at one of the beforementioned support levels. A big reversal and follow-through to the top-side will need to develop. If the DAX were to not fill the gap and hold right around current levels, we would still need to see a strong shove higher which negates the bearish trend in place since the peak in June.

DAX: Daily

DAX Trading Towards Gap-fill, Break of H&S Neckline

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.