What’s inside:
- DAX holiday chop continues
- Resistance levels could be met quickly in early January with fresh buying
- For now, the sidelines look like a good place to be, but if in a position manage as any other time
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The last week of the year, a time of thin trading and low volatility. Barring an unforeseen news shock the next few days aren’t likely to hold a lot of ‘excitement’. The DAX spent the better part of the month in strong rally mode, rising nearly 10% from the 12/2 low, until the holiday chop set in last week. Even if it was another time of the year, the DAX was in need of a period of consolidation/pullback given how fierce the rise was in such a short span of time. The combination of an overbought market and time of year are in alignment.
The market is presently hanging out above the November 2015 peak at 11431. Looking to the left, the next point of resistance arrives at the August ‘15 peak at 11670, then the July ’15 high at 11802. These are highly unlikely to be obtained this week, but a rush of new money coming into the market in January could quickly carry the market up to these levels.
It’s unlikely, again barring any unforeseen headlines, we see much of a dip lower. Near-term support comes in at Friday’s low of 11409. Nothing substantial to lean on until the April top-side trend-line, currently sitting just over 11200.
For now, we’ll sit tight and wait for the calendar to flip. If you are currently in a position, it’s a good idea to keep risk controls just as tight as you would if the market was in a period of heightened volatility; expect the unexpected.
DAX: Daily
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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