Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Key Breakout Level Converging with Brexit

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Key Breakout Level Converging with Brexit

Paul Robinson,
What's on this page

GBP/USD Highlights:

  • GBP/USD trying to breakout as Brexit deal looms
  • Buy the rumor, sell the news – positioning may hold the answer

GBP/USD is once again in breakout territory trading above the 13500 level, a level that has been in play for over a decade with more recent impact since December 2019. And a lot of play around that level has been unfolding in the final weeks of this year as a Brexit deal looms.

Today, cable is once again pushing above the level for a third time this month, but will it hold? This could largely depend on whether a Brexit deal will be struck, which is the expectation as this point. Will it be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of deal, though?

Long GBP isn’t a particularly crowded traded as per the futures market, and in fact positioning in the market is effectively flat. So as far as a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario goes, has the market really bought into the rumor?

There are other driving forces at work here – the US dollar. It is has been declining in earnest versus currencies. Continued USD weakness could help propel GBP/USD higher as well once Brexit is out of the way. The timing of a potential breakout is interesting from a technical & fundamental standpoint.

A weekly, or monthly close for further confirmation, above 13500 is preferred given the long-term nature of the resistance level in question. Maybe we get that today, maybe not. But a closing weekly, then monthly breakout, could set GBP/USD up well as Q1 rolls around after the holidays.

A good whacking back below 13500, though, will at the least put bullish ambitions on hold. Perhaps another time we will see a resurgence, or maybe it ends up becoming too much to overcome as the market shifts its focus.

Should a breakout hold, the 14300s (2018 highs) appear to be a logical point on the charts to look for a rally to extend to, initially. From there we would reassess the situation based on price behavior.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Paul Robinson
Build confidence during these volatile times.
Get My Guide

GBP/USD Weekly Chart (watch for close > 13500)

gbp/usd weekly chart

GBP/USD Chart by TradingView

GBP/USD Daily Chart (can it sustain a breakout?)

gbp/usd daily chart

GBP/USD Chart by TradingView

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.