News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
  • Is investing in your favorite brand or buying its products the better financial move? Read the article for a breakdown. https://t.co/iWOlDAK8cD https://t.co/0uS5VvWj12
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zxRWoNR4lS https://t.co/bXTx0TSRmU
  • BTC/USD treading water sideways, 28600 the big level to watch. ETH/USD working on forming a nice-looking descending wedge. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/H1qOV4FR1P https://t.co/tjutUl7Nt7
  • Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias. Get your weekly gold technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/HaEe3i4Sug https://t.co/LsARS2mnFI
  • Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges. Get your weekly GBP forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/IRO7a6Jv8J https://t.co/4LxWz7sOVF
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AXKeEsin95
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.02% Gold: -0.27% Silver: -0.91% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/PgsZBsHHp8
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending Wedge, Confluent Support Test

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending Wedge, Confluent Support Test

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/JPY Technical Strategy: Long-Term mixed, Short-Term bearish.

- GBP/JPY tested a confluent zone of support this morning, and this can open the door to strategies on both sides of the pair.

- If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. They’re free and updated for Q1, 2017. If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, please check out our IG Client Sentiment.

To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

After coming into July with considerable strength, GBP/JPY spent most of the month trying to break-above the prior swing-high at 148.46. This high was set in December, just after the Fed hiked rates for just the second time in the past nine years. A subsequent top-side run in April fell short of taking out this level, and we saw this again in July as sellers set-in a ‘lower-high’ at 147.78.

But this hasn’t been an entirely one-sided story; as buyers have been responding to those retracements in the bullish move throughout 2017, and this has created an ascending wedge formation on the Daily chart of GBP/JPY.

GBP/JPY Daily: Ascending Wedge Formation

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending Wedge, Confluent Support Test

Chart prepared by James Stanley

As you can see from the above chart, current prices are in the process of testing this bullish trend-line projection. This level is confluent with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the same move, taking the October 2016 low up to the December high. Perhaps more interesting: The 50% and 38.2% retracements from this same move helped to set swing-low support in April and again in June, just before buyers came-in to take control of the situation.

GBP/JPY Daily: Current Support at 23.6% Retracement, 38.2% and 50% Prior Swing-Lows

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending Wedge, Confluent Support Test

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This would leave GBP/JPY in a bullish position with the prospect of trend continuation as, at least at this point, prices remain above support and this can be an ideal anchor-point for bullish exposure.

However, as we discussed this morning, it appears as though we’ve seen the initial peek of risk aversion begin to show in global markets. If we do see a continuation of this theme, as driven by concerns around North Korea’s continued nuclear ambitions, GBP/JPY could potentially put in a dramatic down-side break. The British Pound is relatively weak after last week’s BoE meeting, and the Japanese Yen could see continued strength on the build of jitters around potential trouble in Asia.

For those that want to look at bearish strategies in GBP/JPY, they’d likely want to wait for a bit more information before looking to push that theme. A down-side break could open the door for bearish exposure, as bears taking control and driving below this morning’s swing-low of 142.24 could signal more pain ahead. Conversely, traders can look for ‘lower-high’ resistance below the prior swing-low of 144.00. If prices break-above 144.00, the bearish thesis will no longer look attractive, and traders would likely want to re-shift compasses back-towards a bullish direction.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending Wedge, Confluent Support Test

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES