News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $AUDCAD has continued to weak today, now trading around the 0.9800 level. The pair is down almost 200 pips from the multi-year highs hit just shy of the 1.0000 level yesterday. $AUD $CAD https://t.co/hffaXojF5j
  • $Gold trying to build a base off of that 1725 level - one minute chart so super small sample size. but that bearish run was aggressive $GC $GLD https://t.co/USjAU0lcig https://t.co/uubVG4Jpe2
  • Now up 40 handles from the $SPX's stalled break down. Looks like we are in for yet another interesting, intraday volatility day
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.19% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.33% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.41% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.45% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/e6FkqKIOLF
  • - There’s No Fundamental Justification For A Tightening Of Nominal Bond Yields At The Long End - Governing Council Should Instruct Board At March 11 Meeting To Fight Unwarranted Tightening Of Financing Conditions
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.17% Germany 30: -0.70% Wall Street: -0.85% France 40: -1.46% FTSE 100: -2.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/rgg0WIgTxK
  • ECB's Stournaras says ECB should accelerate PEPP purchases
  • Another brutal day for gold as it breaks beneath prior February lows Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/02/25/Gold-Price-Plummets-as-Treasury-Yields-Soar-Where-to-Next-for-Gold.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9 $GLD $XAU https://t.co/5qpaELXVLz
  • $Gold sell-off getting nasty just started to test 38.2 of the 18-20 major move ~1725 $GC $GLD https://t.co/1cb3hjRAR2 https://t.co/nXy6gomZU0
  • Gold printed a fresh eight-month low earlier in today’s session and the precious metal looks set to fall further if US Treasury yields resume their multi-month rally. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/I4RpWM0mEY https://t.co/OrtbLLncuK
Brexit Latest: Deal Speculation Sinks Ranging EUR/GBP Rates

Brexit Latest: Deal Speculation Sinks Ranging EUR/GBP Rates

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

Brexit Deal Overview:

  • EUR/GBP rates have reversed lower in the confines of their multi-month triangle and sideways consolidation.
  • Although consolidation is ongoing, the return to range lows, particularly in the context of avoiding a ‘no deal, hard Brexit,’ means traders should keep a potential bearish breakout on their radar.
  • Retail trader positioning suggests a bearish bias to EUR/GBP rates.

Hope for Brexit Deal Buoys GBP

The British Pound is sitting near session highs across the majors as speculation arises that a Brexit deal may be getting close. As EU-UK trade negotiators continue to hammer out disagreements, the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has said that “a deal can be reached,” while an unnamed Tory MP was being quoted across various news sources as to say that a no deal was “now less likely.” UK House of Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg was noted for commenting that UK parliament may have to vote in 2021 to “retrospectively” correct domestic laws to comply with an already-agreed upon Brexit deal.

Read more: Brexit Latest: GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rates Pin Breakout Hopes on Brexit Deal

Patience Still Needed in EUR/GBP

The GBP-crosses are starting to gather pace around the news, as traders do their best to put together the puzzle pieces and see a picture of a ‘no deal, hard Brexit’ avoided. With risk appetite firming thanks to news across the pond that the US Congress is moving closer towards a fiscal stimulus deal, GBP-crosses have a chance to stretch their legs.

Our focus here, EUR/GBP rates, have reversed lower in the confines of their multi-month triangle and sideways consolidation.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

EUR/GBP RATE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (DECEMBER 2019 TO DECEMBER 2020) (CHART 1)

eur/gbp rate, eur/gbp technical analysis, eur/gbp chart, eur/gbp rate forecast, eur/gbp rate chart, eur to gbp, gbp rate, brexit latest, brexit talks, brexit

Insofar as EUR/GBP rates remain in their sideways consolidation since July, not much has changed from this strategist’s perspective since the last update on December 10. At that time it was noted that “a push higher from here into triangle resistance near 0.9180 is possible.” EUR/GBP rates pushed as high as 0.9230 before reversing, suggesting that symmetrical triangle resistance has indeed “exert[ed] its primacy.”

Still holding within the range, EUR/GBP finds itself below the descending trendline from the 2007 and 2016 highs. Bullish momentum is quickly fading, with EUR/GBP rates below the daily 5-, 8-, and 13-EMAs, even as the daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope remains in bullish sequential order. Daily MACD is starting to compress while in bullish territory, while Slow Stochastics are trending lower after establishing a bearish divergence with price action (relative to the early-December high).

As momentum builds towards a Brexit deal – thereby avoiding a ‘no deal, hard Brexit’ outcome – traders should keep an eye for a return to the range lows near 0.8865. Breaking through this level would be an achievement two-fold, not only breaking the multi-month range support, but cutting through symmetrical triangle support off the February and November swing lows. With a deal in tow, a EUR/GBP rate selloff below 0.8865 would put the pair in bearish breakout territory.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Get Your Free GBP Forecast
Get My Guide

IG Client Sentiment Index: EUR/GBP Rate Forecast (December 15, 2020) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs eur/gbp, eur/gbp rate chart, eur/gbp rate forecast, eur/gbp technical analysis, brexit latest, brexit talks, brexit

EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 47.27% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.12 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.74% higher than yesterday and unchanged from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.83% higher than yesterday and 13.28% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/GBP prices may continue to rise.

Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/GBP price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES