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US Dollar Trades at Pivotal Resistance. Here are Levels to Watch

US Dollar Trades at Pivotal Resistance. Here are Levels to Watch

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

- US Dollar trades at major resistance versus the Euro, Canadian Dollar, and others

- A major break higher seems relatively unlikely given a sharp drop in FX volatility prices

- See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators

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The US Dollar trades at pivotal resistance versus the Euro and other major pairs. Here are the levels we’re watching and why we believe a further breakout remains unlikely.

EURUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro continues to consolidate within a wide range against the US Dollar, and its inability to break major price levels keeps our near-term trading bias effectively neutral. A hold above key volume and price-based congestion support of $1.11 shifts focus to near-term resistance at $1.12 and eventually $1.1450. Low FX volatility prices suggests that there is little risk of a substantive break in either direction.

USDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar remains just above a potentially significant turning point versus the Japanese Yen at major volume and price-based congestion support of ¥119. As we noted yesterday, recent market dynamics suggest that a breakdown could coincide with similarly significant S&P 500 volatility. The potential catalyst for such a move isn’t obvious, however, and in the meantime we see little reason to expect a sudden sell-off in both the USD/JPY and S&P. Focus thus turns to near-term range resistance near ¥121.

GBPUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The British Pound has dropped sharply after testing key short-term resistance versus the US Dollar, and attention now turns to a volume-based congestion zone in the $1.51-1.52 range.

AUDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Australian Dollar has stopped and reversed at substantial volume-based congestion resistance against the US Dollar starting near $0.7300, and the failure shifts focus to psychologically-significant support at $0.7000. We are inclined to believe it may stick to its recent trading range given a drop in FX volatility prices and US Dollar consolidation in other major pairs.

USDCAD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar trades at the top of its trading range versus the Canadian Dollar, and continued USD consolidation across the board may keep it from a more substantial break higher. A failure to break above C$1.3350 would keep our eye on important volume-based congestion at C$1.3250 as near-term support.

NZDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The New Zealand Dollar has failed to hold above key price and volume-based congestion resistance versus the US Dollar in the $0.6300-0.6400 range. And indeed the failure leaves it at the bottom of its recent trading range at multi-year lows of $0.6200. We view a more substantial breakdown as relatively less likely given that the US currency trades at key resistance across the board.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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