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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Spotlight on Technical Levels

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Spotlight on Technical Levels

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast - Talking Points

  • USD/CAD may have more upside before resuming broader trend lower
  • AUD/CAD’s countertrend may continue before finding resistance at SMAs
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USD/CAD Technical Forecast: Slightly Bullish

The Canadian Dollar weakened against the Greenback, marking USD/CAD’s first weekly gain since February as sinking energy prices dented the Loonie’s strength. Given that the drop in crude oil prices is likely to be a transitory event as the global economy continues ramping up, there is likely to be a resumption of the broader trend lower in USD/CAD.

That said, price action has been contained within a descending channel since late January, one that is part of a larger downward move rooted in the early 2020 Covid-induced USD rush. Prices may continue to climb to the channel’s upper bound given that the MACD oscillator crossed above its centerline late Friday.

To the downside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the January to March move may offer support. Below that leaves open space for price to descend to the channel’s lower limit. Above, USD/CAD will aim for the 38.2% Fib level and the 20-day Simple Moving Average. Breaching above those levels would then likely see a test of the channel’s upper limit.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart

Chart created with TradingView

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AUD/CAD Technical Forecast: Slightly Bearish

AUD/CAD was nearly unchanged last week, with the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar finding support as oil prices declined towards the second half of the week. The pair’s 200-day Simple Moving Average, along with an area of price inflection from late last year, offered a layer of technical support. Given that prices have continued to decline since breaking below an ascending trendline earlier this month, the current downside move may persist.

The 200-day SMA, a high-visibility technical level, which has also appeared to offer a layer of support last week, is positioned to step in again should prices shift lower. To the upside, AUD/CAD faces the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels before the 20- and 100-day SMAs, which are both trending lower after completing a bearish cross.

AUD/CAD 6-Hour Chart

AUD/CAD price chart

Chart created with TradingView

USD/CAD, AUD/CAD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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