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Euro Technical Forecast: Will EUR/USD, EUR/AUD Weakness Last?

Euro Technical Forecast: Will EUR/USD, EUR/AUD Weakness Last?

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

EURO WEEKLY TECHNICAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL

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The Euro has weakened broadly over the last few trading sessions. In fact, recent Euro selling pressure has steered EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD into the red year-to-date. Relative downside across EUR price action this past week was seen particularly against the Pound as well as the Yen and US Dollar, which declined by -1.52%, -1.34% and -1.24% respectively. The Aussie was the laggard out of major Euro peers with EUR/AUD sliding by a more modest -0.55%.

EUR/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (21 AUG 2020 TO 15 JAN 2021)

EURUSD Price Chart Euro Technical Forecast

EUR/USD has pulled back sharply since rejecting the 1.2300-price level. The most liquid and heavily traded currency pair sank nearly 250-pips from its 06 January high, which propelled EUR/USD price action below its 50-day simple moving average. Not to mention, volatility and bearish momentum have accelerated recently judging by the MACD indicator and Bollinger Band expansion.

Confirmation of follow-through lower could be provided by a breakdown beneath the 09 December swing low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement shown on the chart above. Taking out this possible zone of buoyancy might motivate Euro bears to make a deeper push toward the 100-day simple moving average. The negatively-sloped 20-day simple moving average may serve as a technical resistance level going forward if a relief bounce comes into play.

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EUR/AUD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (24 SEP 2020 TO 15 JAN 2021)

EURAUD Price Chart Euro Technical Forecast

EUR/AUD price action is looking a little overextended as the Euro plunges to its weakest level against the Aussie since December 2018. The 8-day simple moving average underscores the FX pair’s short-term bearish trend. Surmounting this technical barrier, however, might open up the door to bigger rebound. In addition to positive divergence on the MACD indicator, waning EUR/AUD weakness is hinted at by the relative strength index perking back up out of ‘oversold’ territory.

Pinching Bollinger Band width also increases the statistical probability of a consolidation higher. If a rebound materializes, EUR/AUD bulls could look toward the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels as potential topside objectives. An upward move could fizzle out near broader bearish trend resistance connecting the October and December swing highs.

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-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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