News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The 200-day is working sideways almost in straight-line fashion, clocking in at 12195. It should stay steady around that level for a while given its lack of any kind of trajectory. Get your #DAX technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/89QDSAH3lx https://t.co/WhkXTDkmsC
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.04% France 40: 0.98% FTSE 100: 0.60% US 500: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/UAThIT98XL
  • USD/MXN has rallied back above confluence support but keep price within the confines of the near-term downtrend. Get your $USDMXN technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/I2nrgrvwq6 https://t.co/o32vPKLGKQ
  • #SP500 teetering on frequently-tested support at 3282.3. See my full take in my daily election and market update at 23:00 GMT. https://t.co/aRlCRLosqw
  • Vote on House Stopgap funding bill expected this Tuesday according to aide - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.00% Gold: -2.17% Silver: -8.68% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/5abU7hof5c
  • Poll: Many are weighing their market convictions today, so it is worth running a poll. Do you think the break lower today from the S&P 500, global indices, emg markets, carry and other 'risk' assets is the start of a lasting bear wave (ie a weeks long and -10%-plus rout)?
  • #Gold technical support zone discussed in today's webinar catching the lows. . . $XAUUSD - https://t.co/4s1mlKp2rr https://t.co/vZYjrSVNJZ
  • RT @USCBO: By the end of 2020, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 98% of GDP. The projected budget deficits would boost…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.33%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 66.21%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6wPYEEd6ni
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Bounce in Focus Ahead of FOMC

US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Bounce in Focus Ahead of FOMC

2020-09-13 10:00:00
James Stanley, Strategist
Share:

US Dollar Technical Forecast:

  • The USD continued its September bounce this week, showing six consecutive days of gains while building in a series of higher-highs and higher-lows.
  • The big item on the economic calendar for next week is FOMC, and this is the first rate decision after the bank’s strategy shift was communicated at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
  • This article incorporates price action and trendline analysis while looking at the USD, and if you’d like to learn more about either, we offer education on these topics in DailyFX Education.

US Dollar Sell-Off Sinks to Support to Start September – Now What?

So far September has brought a bit of hope to USD bulls, as the US currency finally ran into some element of support that could stem the declines that’d become commonplace in the months prior. This support zone was looked at a couple of weeks ago, highlighting a few different mechanisms in place in a very tight proximity of each other. This confluent area on the chart came into play on the very first day of September; and since then, sellers have been unable to break any fresh ground.

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart: Confluent Support Holds the Lows

US Dollar Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

Also taking place since that September 1st support inflection: Six consecutive days of gains in DXY – and this is the first time that’s happened since the coronavirus started to get priced into Western markets in late-February. That six-day-streak came to an end on Wednesday of last week; and the pullback in the USD strength theme lasted through the ECB rate decision the morning after. At that meeting, the European Central Bank didn’t appear to be overly concerned about Euro-strength and the natural reaction was a quick topside pop, which amounted to a deeper pullback in USD.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 22
( 13:09 GMT )
Join Day 3 of the DailyFX Summit discussing currencies
Trading Price Action
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

But – the Dollar soon caught support and then went back into bull mode as buyers came back to the table. At this point, the four-hour chart below highlights both a recent higher high and higher low that can keep the door open for bullish continuation prospects.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

US Dollar Price Action for Next Week

The big looming item in the week ahead is the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. And given the recent shift at the Fed, in which Jerome Powell said that the FOMC is now targeting ‘average inflation’ while casting a more watchful eye on unemployment, it’ll be interesting to hear the banks’ stance on how exactly that impacts their expectations for monetary policy in the near-term.

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by James Stanley
Access our Free Guides
Get My Guide

What’s interesting around this recent shift is that one would likely expect some USD-weakness in response; and to be sure, in the immediate days after that announcement, that’s what happened. But at this point, on net, the US Dollar is higher than it was when Chair Powell made that remark. So, while the Fed has even more wiggle room with potential rate hikes in the event that inflation continues to print above expectations, as it did on Friday; the Greenback has continued to climb after that really big zone of support came into play earlier this month.

The forecast for the US Dollar will be set to bullish for the week ahead, looking for more pronounced tendencies of topside price action as the end of Q3 nears.

US Dollar Technical Forecast for Next Week: Bullish

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES