We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
  • We were almost there, but the $SPX fell short of a >1.0% daily change. That raises the tally to 39 consecutive trading days without a climb or fall of even a moderate measure https://t.co/ibt82dBGmh
  • En español: El oro tropieza y se precipita en caída libre. ¿Qué explica las pérdidas del metal dorado y la alta volatilidad en los mercados financieros? #XAUUSD #trading $gold https://t.co/Hdsd0z1qih https://t.co/WKnGaABVS8
US Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast: Rising Wedge as USD Breaks Down

US Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast: Rising Wedge as USD Breaks Down

2019-06-09 09:00:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
Share:

US Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast Talking Points:

  • The US Dollar continued the sell-off that started last Friday, falling below a number of key supports as the currency pushed down to fresh two-month-lows.
  • A speech from Jerome Powell on Tuesday and NFP numbers on Friday helped to drive the move, with DXY finding a bit of support from the familiar Fibonacci level at 96.47. Can sellers continue to push the trend-lower?

USD Technical Forecast for Next Week: Neutral

US Dollar Bears Come Back with Aggression

Last Friday brought a noticeable move of USD-weakness; but given that just 24 hours prior the currency was jumping up towards the two-year-high, that pullback appeared to be a part of a larger topside theme. This week nullified that potential as sellers continued to drive the move down to fresh two-month-lows, eventually finding a bit of support at the Fibonacci level around 96.47, which is the 23.6% retracement of the 2011-2017 major move. This is a level that’s had bearing on near-term price action over the past eight months since helping to set the monthly high in August of last year.

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart

DXY

Chart prepared by James Stanley

US Dollar’s Ascending Triangle Turns into a Rising Wedge

Coming into Q2 the US Dollar was showing an ascending triangle formation, which is often approached in a bullish manner with the expectation that’s brought bulls in at higher-lows to, eventually, take over at horizontal resistance to allow for a bullish breakout.

And that happened in both April and May. But once the Dollar climbed to fresh highs, bulls all of the sudden got bashful, allowing prices to drop back into the prior range. That bullish bias even lasted into last week’s failed attempt at taking out the two-year-highs. The resistance offered from those meager breakout attempts produces another upward sloping trend-line, although this one carries less angle than the support trend-line, thereby producing a rising wedge formation, which will often be approached with the aim for bearish reversals.

This can open the door for longer-term short-side themes in the US Dollar.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

DXY

Chart prepared by James Stanley

US Dollar Strategy for Next Week

While the potential for a fresh bearish theme remains of interest, the fact of the matter is that the USD moved very far, very fast. Selling at this point would be chasing the move, and while there may be context for bearish continuation; that’s a bit more difficult to justify from a risk management perspective.

The forecast for next week will be set to neutral; but the door may soon open for short-side setups should prices find lower-high resistance at a point of prior support. The 97.00 area on the DXY chart had exhibited a bit of support ahead of the NFP print on Friday. A pullback to this price could open the door for bearish setups with stops investigated above the confluent zone of Fibonacci resistance around this Wednesday’s swing highs.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

DXY

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.