Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro May Be in Trouble After Bounce

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro May Be in Trouble After Bounce

What's on this page

EUR/USD Highlights:

  • EUR/USD found buyers late last week, but the bounce may result in a lower-high
  • A lower-high could be quite important after double-topping at the 2008 trend-line
  • Event risk comes by way of ECB meeting on Thursday, NFPs on Friday

To view the longer-term technical and fundamental outlook for the Euro, or to see our Top Trading Opportunities for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails.

The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with EUR/USD possibly putting in a lower-low from earlier last month, in the days ahead the euro may be ready to turn down from the long-term trend-line for an extended period of time.

The trend since last year is still pointed up, but a strong turn down will have important support by way of the 2017 high and trend-line from April come under fire. A solid close below 12100 is seen as a possible catalyst for a sizable unwind by large speculators in the futures market. Positioning has been hovering in record territory for a while and suggests on a turn of trend there will be plenty of fuel to drive the single-currency lower.

Looking at retail positioning, traders are net short EUR/USD (IGCS index is at -1.8), which on a contrarian basis is a bullish signal with sellers out pacing buyers by nearly 2 to 1, but should sellers show up in earnest that could quickly change in favor of lower prices as traders flips long. It’s worth keeping an eye on. Check out the IG Client Sentiment page for further details.

In terms of event risk next week, a rise in volatility could result from the ECB on Thursday and/or the U.S. jobs report on Friday. For estimates and release times, check out the economic calendar.

Whether you are a new trader building a foundation or an experienced trader struggling (it happens to the best), here are some ideas for Building Confidence in Trading

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD daily price chart

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.