News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/pS48NIuwqX
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/gFVVZTGbe1
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/nHXiNJhLes
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/h0TmJcZeqr
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/sphxUAW9TB https://t.co/ZhsTeJOOM8
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/qP96xmgDVn
  • The pro-risk Australian Dollar may extend gains after the record miss in US jobs data, amplifying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and keeping the Dow Jones and S&P 500 intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/yf8mPX3O3W https://t.co/uCCmjaxUhF
  • Who else is keeping close tabs on Dogecoin $DOGE this weekend? All eyes on Elon Musk @elonmusk, the proverbial 'Dogefather,' and his Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl performance kicking off at 11:30PM ET. The #crypto is already looking nice and perky following that trendline break! https://t.co/nrQsnlUqWj https://t.co/4lOz6NLQTG
  • There is some very interesting event risk over the opening half of this coming week of trade. It starts with Elon Musk hosting SNL tonight for Dogecoin traders and moves into US inflation data to as means to stir the ongoing Fed debate and Dollar https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/LXhjv7ToWC
  • It was a big week for Gold bulls and Gold prices broke out to fresh two-month-highs, finally taking-out the 1800 level along the way. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/D222Ni37Dv https://t.co/KcMYyx3Ro4
US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Analyst

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

  • US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded
  • 1.19 May Prove to be Interim Top for EUR/USD
  • GBP Boosted by Short-Squeeze

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to August 4th, released August 7th)

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

In the week to August 4th, USD selling remained the theme with speculators adding further bearish exposure as net shorts rose $4.6bln, totalling $28.8bln. However, as we have previously mentioned, the bearish US Dollar trade is a crowded bet, which faces the risk of a corrective move higher, particularly as the drop in US yields has stalled for now.

Once again, USD selling had come at the hands of another round of Euro buying as net longs picked up by $3.5bln. Although, while outright net longs are at a record high, on an open-interest adjusted basis, Euro bullish positioning is at the largest level since April 2018. Alongside this, while leveraged funds have now joined the Euro long party, we emphasise that the rejection from 1.19 may prove to be a short-term top in EUR/USD.

As we had noted in last week’s report, recent price action in the Pound had hinted at short-covering among speculators, which looks to have been confirmed after net shorts were slashed by $850mln to $1.2bln. Last week, the Bank of England had talked down the prospects of NIRP being introduced in the UK, which in turn saw a repricing in short-end rates and thus reducing a layer of uncertainty for the Pound. As such, the Pound may start to gain ground against the Euro, bringing EUR/GBP towards 0.89.

Across the safe-haven currencies, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc were in demand with investors seemingly staying more defensive. US-China tensions continue to grind higher with the US recently announcing sanctions on Chinese Officials as well as HK Chief Carrie Lam. Looking ahead, focus will be on the phase 1 trade deal compliance review scheduled for August 15th.

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

US Dollar |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

EUR/USD |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

GBP/USD |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

USD/JPY |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

USD/CHF |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

USD/CAD |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

AUD/USD |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

NZD/USD |

US Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT ReportUS Dollar Bears Increasingly Crowded, GBP/USD Rose on Short-Covering - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES