Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

What’s inside:

  • Euro large speculators are still holding a concerning number of contracts long
  • The number of oil contracts held long among large specs suggests neutral at best
  • Other major currencies & markets with positions updated

Check out this new guide for tips on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

Every Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows traders’ positioning in the futures market as it stands for the week ending on Tuesday. In the table below, we’ve outlined important data points pertaining to the net positioning of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.). The net size, one-week change, and where the position size stands relative to the 52-week range.

COT Positioning Data

Noteworthy developments

Euro: The position profile among large speculators remains a headwind for the single-currency. At nearly 91k contracts, the net-long position among the trend-following crowd is towards the upper-end in size over the past few months, also rivaling the largest bullish bets seen throughout the history of the euro. While this group of traders has a strong track record of correctly identifying macro-trends in the euro contract, extremes have warned of turning points in the past. The current profile might not imply a major reversal in trend, but when coupled with the intermediate-term technical landscape it does suggest there could be problems moving forward until we see an alleviation of overly bullish sentiment and a more meaningful price correction than what we’ve seen during the past month.

COT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face Headwinds

EURUSD: Weekly, 2009-Current

COT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face Headwinds

Crude oil: For most of the year large spec traders have held a sizable net-long position (reaching a record in February). This doesn’t leave a lot of ammunition left to push oil higher, and thus appears to at least keep the outlook neutral, if not at some point provide fuel for a material move lower should the bearish technical scenario we discussed at the end of last month come to fruition. (See this piece for more – “Big-picture Technical Analysis for USD, Euro, Gold, Oil & S&P 500”)

COT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face Headwinds

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

COT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face HeadwindsCOT Report: EUR/USD & Crude Oil Continue to Face Headwinds

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.