News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Xu3ZT7EtrW https://t.co/5VHKn52MaA
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHq4Np https://t.co/mf9rsmIvaW
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/mYWO0Eta0P
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ZvEMQuFjSs https://t.co/rMmq9cehnY
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tm4k3IVzHr
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/FFMy5O9YoY
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/jZHcyAZ5SU
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfV5wS6 https://t.co/Iw9haaHAnn
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/raO3gCGqQ6
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/rWVlBs6H3c
COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Euro large speculators buying pressure wanes, could indicate trend exhaustion soon
  • Crude oil large specs continue to hold large long position despite limited upside
  • Charts of large spec positions in other major currencies, markets

Check out our New Trading Guides page for free forecasts and educational content.

Each week on Friday the CFTC releases the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows traders’ positioning in the futures market as it stands for the week ending on Tuesday. Displayed in the table below are the net positions of large speculators (i.e. hedge funds, CTAs, etc.); the change in their positioning from the prior week and where the net position stands compared relative to its 52-week range.

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

Noteworthy developments

Euro – Large speculators in the single-currency made a timely flip from net short to net long back in May, and in aggregate, as they have many times in the past, caught a large chunk of the multi-month move (a tendency we discussed at the time of the flip). Buying pressure has waned in recent weeks while the net long position built towards record levels. Since the week of July 21 long contracts held by large specs has declined from 91k contracts to 88k. We could be reaching a saturation point; how much buying power is left to sustain the current trend? With long-term resistance in the vicinity, the euro may be setting up for a scenario where we are seeing buying pressure dry up and a material correction or worse soon sets in. There are certainly plenty of speculative longs to help drive price lower should they start unwinding in earnest.

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

EURUSD: Monthly

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

Crude Oil – Large speculators reduced their net long position for a second week in a row, but it still remains at historically high levels. During the bounce starting back in June, trend-followers quickly snatched up contracts despite oil prices remaining relatively stagnant for over a year. Sure, there have been plenty of sharp price swings, but it’s amounted to essentially nothing for quite some time. Should WTI start gaining downward momentum with limited bounces, there is plenty of supply (futures contracts) to be unloaded. For crude to sustain higher levels a wash-out of longs looks likely to be needed.

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

Crude Oil: Weekly

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

The COT report is a longer-term sentiment indicator – for a short-term view on sentiment, check out IG Client Sentiment data.

Other futures contracts and large speculator positioning:

COT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying PowerCOT: Euro Large Specs May Be Running Out of Buying Power

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES