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US Dollar (DXY) Outlook: Inching Towards a Fresh Three-Month High Ahead of Important Data Releases

US Dollar (DXY) Outlook: Inching Towards a Fresh Three-Month High Ahead of Important Data Releases

Nick Cawley, Strategist

US Dollar Price, News, and Analysis:

  • US Dollar (DXY) chart remains positive.
  • US retail sales and sentiment data round off the week.

The US dollar basket (DXY) continues to edge higher, aided in part by a slightly weaker Euro, and is now pressing against a series of recent highs between 92.77 and 92.84, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish rhetoric. Powell continues to look through the recent surge in US price pressures – June core inflation y/y printed at 4.5% this week – believing that the current inflationary trend is temporary in nature and will subside soon. Later in the session, May US retail sales data will be released (13:30 BST) before the latest University of Michigan sentiment data crosses the screens at 15:00 GMT. The headline consumer sentiment reading is expected to move higher – 86.5 vs. 85.5 in June – while all eyes will also be on the two inflation expectations readings to see how American households view current and future US inflation trends.

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar.

The US dollar basket continues to move higher within a short-term channel uptrend with the support line holding repeated tests so far. All three simple moving averages are now in a bullish formation with the shorter-dated 20-dsma providing additional support over the last week. For the DXY to continue this move, the previously mentioned high at 92.84 needs to be broken conclusively which would then leave the March 31 high at 93.48 as the next target.

Using Moving Averages

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Price Chart (November 2020 – July 16, 2021)

US Dollar (DXY) Outlook: Inching Towards a Fresh Three-Month High Ahead of Important Data Releases

What is your view on the US Dollar– bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.