News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: Asia AM - Japanese Yen Outlook: $USDJPY Drops on Haven Flows as Traders Brace for #FOMC Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/07/27/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-USDJPY-Drops-on-Haven-Flows-as-Traders-Brace-for-FOMC.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr htt…
  • Please join @ddubrovskyFX at 20:00 EST/00:00 GMT for a webinar on what other traders' buy/sell bets say about price trends. Register here: https://t.co/AzOQip9B3r https://t.co/tYPv6QYQIG
  • US Dollar Outlook: Fed Decision Due - Will it Spark Fireworks? The $DXY edged lower on Tuesday with $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, and $USDJPY all feeling Dollar weakness. Will the Fed catch markets off-guard with another hawkish surprise tomorrow? Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/07/27/us-dollar-outlook-fed-decision-due-will-it-spark-fireworks.html https://t.co/iTt0jJiuUC
  • Crude oil prices are trading largely unchanged following last week's rebound as the Delta variant of Covid and Chinese regulatory measures temper the near-term demand outlook. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/T3oQa9qksd https://t.co/qgDReDbtcd
  • USD/JPY price action has weakened sharply on the session but is searching for support. Get your $USDJPY market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/s6baPFYuS3 https://t.co/1ze3cKJytb
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Stocks Decline Despite Stellar Tech Earnings, All Eyes Shift to Fed $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ $NDX L…
  • $SPX put in for an impressive midday recovery this past session leaving a large lower wick. The scale of the lower wicks consistently larger than corrections off highs https://t.co/BGkiFUwYsk
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) Actual: 103.2 Previous: 110.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-27
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.44% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.46% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/foLJDv5tkA
  • US API Stock Changes Crude -4.728M Cushing -0.126M Gasoline -6.226M Distillate -1.882M #OOTT $CL_F
EUR/GBP Price Forecast - Range Support Broken, Fresh Multi-Month Lows Now on The Cards

EUR/GBP Price Forecast - Range Support Broken, Fresh Multi-Month Lows Now on The Cards

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Euro and British Pound (EUR/GBP) Price, News, and Analysis:

  • EUR/GBP slips further after better-than-forecast UK inflation data
  • The Euro remains under pressure post-ECB Review.

Sterling opened the session on the front foot today after the latest UK inflation data beat market expectations, pushing inflation further above the central bank’s target. Slightly weaker-than-expected producer price readings tempered the overall outlook but the Bank of England will need to remain vigilant over increasing price pressures ahead of the August 5 MPC decision and Monetary Policy Report publication. Any hint of concern over inflation, or a nudge towards policy tightening, will see Sterling set course for recent highs.

British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Rallying After Hot UK Inflation Data

I covered the latest ECB Review yesterday – see below – which suggested that any tightening in ECB monetary policy has now been pushed further down the line, leaving the Euro vulnerable to the downside against a range of other currencies. This will continue to weigh on EUR/GBP and will likely see multi-month lows probed in the near future.

EUR/USD Price Outlook – Risks Remain Tilted to The Downside, US CPI up Next

EUR/GBP has been trading in a range for the last few weeks, drifting back towards support before moving higher. The series of lower highs within this range suggests that these pullbacks have weakened over the time, while yesterday’s break lower produced a new multi-month lower low, something that has been extended today. The pair are back below the 20-day sma, confirming a short-term negative sentiment, while the CCI indicator shows that EUR/GBP is deep in oversold territory. The pair may stabilize in the short term, to wash out this extreme weakness, but the downside is still favored with the April 5 low at 0.84725 the next target. Below here, EUR/GBP will be back at levels last seen in February 2020.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (December 2020 – July 14, 2021)

EUR/GBP Price Forecast - Range Support Broken, Fresh Multi-Month Lows Now on The Cards

IG Retail trader data show 73.64% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.79 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.13% higher than yesterday and 18.10% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.26% higher than yesterday and 7.77% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall.Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/GBP trading bias.

What is your view on EUR/GBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES