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USD/ZAR Price Forecast: Rand Remains Resilient Despite Vaccine Drama

USD/ZAR Price Forecast: Rand Remains Resilient Despite Vaccine Drama

South African Rand, USD/ZAR, Dollar-Rand Price Analysis

  • USD/ZAR eyes key psychological level
  • South Africa suspends AstraZeneca vaccine rollout
  • How will Fundamentals effect price action in the near-term?

Despite an increase in risk-on sentiment, the South African Rand has faltered, as bulls trading USD/ZAR catalyzed on the recent setback in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout program, pushing price action towards the key psychological level of 15.00, threatening the nascent recovery of the Emerging Market (EM) currency.

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Just one week after receiving the first batch of the AstraZeneca vaccine, expected to be distributed to the country’s healthcare workers, South Africa is already facing challenges expediting its plan to achieve herd immunity after the vaccine proved to be relatively ineffective against the dominant South African variant of the virus, which currently accounts for approximately 90% of positive cases in the country. With South Africa yet to administer a single dose of the vaccine, the decision to suspend the distribution of the AstraZeneca batch may continue to weigh on the already volatile Rand, forming a hindrance for further progression.

USD/ZAR Price Action

With the US Dollar facing its own challenges, USD/ZAR continues to trade within a zone of confluency between key Fibonacci Retracement levels, providing both support and resistance for the currency pair. The declining trendline continues to provide resistance around the level of 15.35 with the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) remaining above the zero line.

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USD/ZAR Daily Chart

USDZAR Daily Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

For now, as long as the 14.4% Fibonacci Retracement level continues to provides support at the psychological level of 15.00. A break below this level may see a retest of January lows at 14.50. But, if buying pressure is strong enough to surpass current resistance of 15.297, the 23.6% retracement level, then bulls may drive price action toward the next level of resistance at 15.50

USD/ZAR Four Hour Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

--- Written by Tammy Da Costa, Market Writer for

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.