News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/H9fW9ewiQd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/yLt0ldtMsV
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/ZwwuTzTeac
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/4DGXwA8vqs
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) After Worst Jobless Claims Ever

Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) After Worst Jobless Claims Ever

Justin McQueen, Analyst

NFP and Forex Trading: Analysis & Talking Points

  • Worst Initial Jobless Claims Ever Can Get a Whole Lot Worse
  • Calm Before the NFP Storm
  • Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls Report

Worst Initial Jobless Claims Ever Can Get a Whole Lot Worse

Alarm bells ringing for the US economy with the impact of the coronavirus and the subsequent lockdown measures placing significant pressure on the labour market. Another cataclysmic surge in initial jobless claims at 6.6mln almost doubling expectations of 3.5mln and as such, that is now the worst jobless claims report in history. Consequently, what has happened in two weeks with 10mln filing for jobless claims, took months during the global financial crisis. That said, while the historic figure will grab the headlines, many had expected the jobless claims to soar with Goldman Sachs changing their call to 6mln from 5.25mln before the release and market participants continue to expect the jobs market to deteriorate further. In turn, the initial market reaction had been relatively muted with US equity futures pulling off slightly, while safe-haven Japanese Yen saw a marginal uptick. With the US extending lockdown measures till the end of April at the earliest, the initial jobless claims report can get a whole lot worse.

Starts in:
Live now:
Jan 25
( 03:01 GMT )
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Cross-Market Weekly Outlook
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

US Labour Market Sharply Deteriorating

Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) After Worst Jobless Claims Ever

Calm Before the NFP Storm

The NFP report will be somewhat backward-looking compared to the initial jobless claims report. As such, much like the AFP report, expectations are for a modest contraction in the headline figure. Keep in mind that the NFP report is from the week of March 8-14th. In turn, with the first notable lockdown orders taking place from March 20th in California with other states reporting lockdown procedures shortly after. The full extent of the coronavirus is unlikely to show up until next month’s reading, which will also have revisions for March.

NFP and Forex: What is NFP and How to Trade it?

Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls Report

A smaller than expected drop in the headline figure may provide some mild reprieve for high beta currencies such as the AUD and NZD. However, it is also important to note that focus will also be on the unemployment figure, which is expected to jump to 3.8% from 3.5%, while wage growth is seen slowing both on the monthly and yearly figures. That said, a notably weak NFP report could see the Japanese Yen push higher, although, as the data is lagging, we expect the impact to be relatively muted on the whole, with greater focus now on the jobless claims figures in the weeks ahead, given that it is the most up-to-date economic indicator.

Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) After Worst Jobless Claims Ever

How to Invest During a Recession: Investments & Strategy

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES