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Gold Price Analysis - Drivers Remain Positive But Market Conditions Are Disorderly

Gold Price Analysis - Drivers Remain Positive But Market Conditions Are Disorderly

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Gold Price (XAU/USD), News and Chart

  • Fresh 7-year+ high as risk-off markets remain heavily bid.
  • Outlook remains positive despite short-term consolidation.

Gold Rally Intact as Risk Markets Crumble

Gold has rallied over $140 per ounce since the low print on February 28, making its highest level in over seven years. The short-term sell-off, reminiscent of the February sell-off candle, has pushed the market back to the mid $1660s per ounce with profit-taking and margin calls on riskier assets cited as reasons for the slip lower.

Gold Price Analysis – XAU/USD Painting an Increasingly Positive Picture

The path of least resistance for the precious metal should be higher with fundamentals and technicals providing a positive back-drop for gold, but current market conditions are anything but logical.

Global risk markets continue to slump, driven lower by the ongoing spread of the coronavirus epidemic. A large part of Northern Italy is now in lockdown as the virus spreads with over 7,370 cases now identified and 366 fatalities. Italy is now facing a ‘national emergency’ according to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and the lockdown will prevent the freedom of movement of 16 million citizens until April 3.

Gold is also in demand after Saudi Arabia hammered the oil market by announcing that it will cut prices and increase output after OPEC failed to agree production cuts with its allies – namely Russia – on Friday. Oil crashed around 30% in opening trade, pulling equity markets down into bear market territory in its wake. US Treasuries are strongly bid with the yield on the 10-year hitting just 0.32% at one stage earlier - a record all-time low - before edging back up to 0.45%. The market is now pricing in the Fed slashing rates by 75bps to 0.00%-0.25% at the next FOMC meeting, a positive driver for gold.

Crude Oil Price Crash as Saudi Arabia Sparks Oil Price War

While the backdrop for gold looks positive, current market conditions are anything but normal and traders must take this into consideration before making any moves. Risk management and discipline are paramount when trading, especially so when market volatility is hitting extremes. The DailyFX Education area has dozens of articles on risk management, including a series of videos on all aspects of how to manage risk.

Becoming a Better Trader – Principles of Risk Management (Videos)

Gold Daily Price Chart (May 2019 – March 9, 2020)

gold price chart

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold (XAU/USD) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.