News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/ltEO5dpKux
  • WTI crude oil is currently trading up against major resistance via the 2019 and 2020 highs within the confines of a channel; something has to give. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/MO9foRjm2y https://t.co/YhBFdvZDEb
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/eVDwmFTaIg
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/8B8hqHahm1
  • The US Dollar finished off an eventful week after CPI and retail sales injected volatility into markets. FOMC is now in the Greenback’s sights as taper talks linger. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/MHi0lfQ93j https://t.co/4XetwYAaNd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/ZZRLV0Wkea
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bearish Gartley pattern, which hints at further downside potential. Negative MACD divergence on the weekly chart suggests that upward momentum may be fading. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/GkMEkVA7YR https://t.co/E1vyCMVt6K
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1G4lMu https://t.co/2TpkkUu7Hg
  • Tesla boss Elon Musk is seemingly running the cryptocurrency market single-handed this week with his tweets prompting a massive sell-off before today’s sharp rally. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qGci02osOP https://t.co/Yp24Sakrfl
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/LDP3HlN4A3
US Dollar Outlook: US Q3 GDP Starter Before FOMC Main Course

US Dollar Outlook: US Q3 GDP Starter Before FOMC Main Course

Nick Cawley, Strategist

US Dollar and Q3 GDP Analysis, Price and Charts

  • US growth slowing down but remains robust.
  • FOMC rate cut fully priced in. What will Fed Chair Powell reveal?

Brand New Q4 2019 USD Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

USD Volatility Likely After High Importance Events

The US dollar has traded in a tight range over the last 4-5 days as traders stick on the sidelines ahead of today’s advanced US Q3 GDP release and the latest interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. A slowdown in US growth is expected while the Fed is fully expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year by another 25 basis points.

The first look at US Q3 GDP is expected to show q/q growth slowing to 1.6% from a prior quarter 2.0%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates growth of 1.7%, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast model estimates show economic expansion of 1.9%. While the US is still expected to show robust growth, the market estimate of 1.6% would be a multi-year low, aside from Q4 2018. US growth has exceeded 3% in four out of the last seven quarters.

US Dollar Outlook: US Q3 GDP Starter Before FOMC Main Course

While US growth remains robust in global terms, the ongoing US-China trade war is starting to weigh on GDP and in particular the manufacturing sector. The last ISM manufacturing print of 47.8, missed expectations of 50.1 and highlighted the steepest slowdown in manufacturing since mid-2009. This Friday’s ISM release is expected to remain in contraction territory with market expectations of a 49.0 out turn.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

Later today the US Federal Reserve is fully expected to cut US interest rates by another 25 basis points, the third cut this year. US dollar volatility is expected to rise around this event with traders looking to subsequent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the health of the economy and the future path of interest rates.

Live Data Coverage – FOMC Rate Decision Webinar 17.45 GMT

The US dollar basket (DXY) has traded in a narrow range in the last few days after breaking its strong uptrend on October 10. The daily chart shows the 200-day moving average acting as short-term support, but any GDP miss and/or dovish commentary from Powell may see this prop come under pressure.

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Price Chart (January – October 30, 2019)

US Dollar Outlook: US Q3 GDP Starter Before FOMC Main Course

IG Client Sentiment shows that how traders are positioned in a wide range of assets and markets.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES