News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Breaking news

ECB leaves monetary policy unchanged

Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.31% Gold: -0.43% Silver: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gNyBVpEfPh
  • 🇺🇸 CB Leading Index MoM (MAR) Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
  • Please join us at 11:00 EST/15:00 GMT for a webinar where you can learn how to identify price trends with trader sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/qguzXYUjTo https://t.co/Jw6GVisPdx
  • 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) Actual: -3.7% Expected: 0.8% Previous: -6.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
  • 💶 Consumer Confidence Flash (APR) Actual: -8.1 Expected: -10.8 Previous: -10.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.80%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 68.46%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/y6X7PjFiad
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/EK6KvR4cep
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.13% Gold: -0.55% Silver: -1.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/yv4Ft3frWO
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.8% Previous: -6.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 CB Leading Index MoM (MAR) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1% Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility Soars on BoC and Fed Risk

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility Soars on BoC and Fed Risk

Justin McQueen, Analyst

CAD Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Bank of Canada to Stick with Neutral Stance
  • Investors Most Bullish on Canadian Dollar Since February 2018

See our quarterly USD forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

Bank of Canada to Stick with Neutral Stance

In recent months, communication from the Bank of Canada has been relatively quiet, as such, the outlook regarding monetary policy has been somewhat uncertain. However, today’s meeting will see the BoC provide updates on the economic outlook in its MPR, alongside a press conference involving the BoC Governor. As it stands, money markets are pricing in little in the way of changes in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year, while 9bps worth of easing is priced in by the end of 2020, which in turn raises the scope for surprise by the BoC in upcoming meetings.

At the September, the BoC’s bias had remained neutral adding slightly dovish signals as the central bank took note of escalating US-China trade tensions. That said, expectations are for the BoC to stick with its neutral bias and signal that current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate, given that Canadian data has held up as of late. Consequently, while option pricing shows that overnight implied volatility has more than doubled (Figure 1) to account for BoC and Fed risk, the implied move a relatively tame 60pips, in which we see the latter risk as the more important in providing volatility.

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility Soars on BoC and Fed Risk

FOMC LIVE WEBINAR WITH JOHN KICKLIGHER

Investors Most Bullish on Canadian Dollar Since February 2018

In the week to October 22nd, CFTC data highlights that investors are the most bullish on the Canadian Dollar since February 2018 following a $1.5bln increase in net longs to $2.5bln, which is also above the 1-standard deviation above the 3-year mean. Alongside this, retail trading sentiment via IG notes that over 74% of traders are net-long providing a stronger contrarian bias.

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility Soars on BoC and Fed Risk

USD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May 19 – Oct 19)

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility Soars on BoC and Fed Risk

Support

Resistance

1.3036

Weekly Low

1.3100

1.3012

July 19th Low

1.3145

23.6% Fib

FX TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-tg.html?ref-author=McQueen

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES