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Gold Price Analysis: Precious Metal Struggles, Breakout Looms

Gold Price Analysis: Precious Metal Struggles, Breakout Looms

2018-09-11 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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Gold Price, News and Analysis

  • Gold mired below $1,200/oz. as technical remain negative.
  • Retail traders remain heavily long of gold despite the recent sell-off.

The DailyFX Q3 Gold Forecast is now available to help traders navigate the market.

Gold’s Trading Range Contracts, Breakout on the Cards

Gold has remained in a $25/oz. trading range for the last 3 weeks, and below $1,200/oz. in the last three days, as the precious metal finds any upside break unsustainable. With the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen taking all the risk-off trade, gold is left at the mercy of a strong dollar and increasing US interest rates.The recent narrowing of the trading range also points to a breakout on the horizon with the downside looking more likely. The downtrend on the daily chart, below, remains in place and a fresh attempt on the $1,160/oz. August 16 low remains likely. The precious metal needs to break and close above $1,216/oz. to regain any bullish momentum.

Gold Daily Price Chart (January - September 11, 2018)

Gold Price Analysis: Precious Metal Struggles, Breakout Looms

The latest IG Retail Sentiment Indicatorshows that traders remain 83.6% net-long of the precious metal,a bearish contrarian sentiment indicator. In addition, the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report show that large US dollar bullish bets remain intact – gold negative – while large speculators are still running a substantial net-short gold position.

Gold and Silver Go Their Separate Ways.

The relationship between gold and silver has broken further with the ration between the two metals now heading towards its widest in over 25 years. With silver now looking extremely cheap against gold, the latter will struggle to rally heavily if the commodity space turns positive.

Gold Price Diverges Against Silver Price Warning of a Turn

Gold Price Analysis: Precious Metal Struggles, Breakout Looms

Are you new to gold trading or are you looking to improve your trading skill sets? We have recently produced an in-depth guide on How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips.

We are interested in your opinion and trading strategies for Gold. You can share your thoughts, views or analysis with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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