We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • 🇪🇺 (EUR) Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP P), Actual: 52.5 Expected: 54.3 Previous: 54.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • 🇪🇺 (EUR) Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (SEP P), Actual: 41.9 Expected: 51.5 Previous: 51.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • 🇪🇺 (EUR) Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (SEP P), Actual: 41.4 Expected: 44.0 Previous: 43.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.67% Oil - US Crude: 0.86% Gold: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/dMbUBlfV3n
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join DailyFX Market Analyst @DavidCottleFX for a look ahead at the major economic data which will drive Asia Pacific markets in the coming seven days. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/985612483?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (SEP P) due at 07:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 51.5 Previous: 51.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-23
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP P) due at 07:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 54.3 Previous: 54.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-23
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) due at 07:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 44.0 Previous: 43.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-23
  • Heads Up: 🇪🇺 (EUR) Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (SEP P) due at 07:30:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 51.5 Previous: 51.7
  • Heads Up: 🇪🇺 (EUR) Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP P) due at 07:30:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 54.3 Previous: 54.8
GBPUSD Forecast: Central Bank 'Double' to Govern Sterling's Fate

GBPUSD Forecast: Central Bank 'Double' to Govern Sterling's Fate

2018-06-21 08:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

GBPUSD Prices, News and Analysis

  • BoE monetary policy decision at 11:00 GMT – no change expected.
  • Governor Carney’s Mansion House speech due at 20:15 GMT

IG Client Sentiment data show that retail are 72.5% net-long of GBPUSD – a contrarian bearish set-up - but recent positional changes gives us a mixed trading bias.

GBPUSD Driven Lower by an Increasingly Hawkish Fed Backdrop

GBPUSD is trading at a fresh seven-month low, knocked lower Wednesday by hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell who said that the case for ‘continued gradual increases in the federal fund rate is strong’. Speaking at the Central Bank Forum in Sintra Powell highlighted the strength of the US economy, putting another two 0.25% rate hikes back on the table.

On the other side of the pair, Sterling has picked up slightly against other currencies but is currently unable to compete with the rampant greenback. The Bank of England has two chances today to put forward their views on the UK economy and perhaps give Sterling traders a clearer view on the future path of UK interest rates. The MPC will announce their latest monetary policy measures at 11:00 GMT with no changes expected. The accompanying text may give some more clarity before the market turns its attention to the BoE governor Mark Carney’s annual Mansion House speech at the Lord Mayor’s Bankers and Merchants dinner, with the text of the speech released at 20:15 GMT.

A clearer picture on growth – expected to remain weak in the second quarter – and the central bank’s updated views on Brexit, may well shape short-term direction in GBPUSD.

GBPUSD Down Nearly 9% in Two Months.

After depreciating nearly 9% against the US dollar since mid-April, Sterling nears a confluence of support between 1.30884 – 50% Fibonacci retracement – and the October 8 swing low at 1.30272. A neutral or mildly hawisk tone from the central bank should see these levels hold in the short-term and perhaps see the pair test the cluster of resistance from 1.33018 to 1.34581.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2017 - June 21, 2018)

GBPUSD Forecast: Central Bank 'Double' to Govern Sterling's Fate

DailyFX has a vast amount of updated resources to help traders make more informed decisions. These include a fully updated Economic Calendar, and a raft of Educational and Trading Guides

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.