News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/UqZBBPZiOl
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/rChAkNqPL2
  • Long wick candles are recurrent within the forex market. This makes understanding the meaning behind these candles invaluable to any trader to comprehend the market dynamics during a specific period. Learn about the importance of extended wicks here: https://t.co/SIpslvhX0J https://t.co/jVxcE1QUBs
  • Safe haven stocks also allow traders to diversify their portfolio and reduce risk. Learn if safe-haven stocks are made for you here: https://t.co/MTc4tUDD6c https://t.co/DOQ6tyzep9
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/WQLZ1X7gIY
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level https://t.co/LkEyRxFhnq
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/ZcxEUWIm8O
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
US AM Digest: DXY Gains Stall as Investors Focus on FOMC Meeting

US AM Digest: DXY Gains Stall as Investors Focus on FOMC Meeting

2018-05-02 13:25:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

Receive the DailyFX US AM Digest in your inbox every day before US equity markets open - signup here

US Market Snapshot via IG: DJIA -0.1%, Nasdaq 100 +0.3%, S&P 500 -0.1%

Major Headlines

  • Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 51.1
  • NZ Q1 Employment Change grew 0.6%, Unemployment Rate fell to 4.4%
  • Eurozone GDP slowed to 2.5% from 2.7%, Unemployment Rate remains at 10yr low
  • UK Construction PMI moves back into expansionary territory at 52.5 from 47.0
  • US ADP Employment Change 204k vs. Exp. 200k
  • API Crude Inventory Report showed a larger than expected build of 3.427mln bpd
  • Apple up over 5% after EPS beat and USD 100bln share buyback
  • Looking ahead, FOMC meeting and DoE Crude Oil Report

USD: Gains in the US Dollar have come to a halt this morning with the USD basket marginally lower as investors eye the FOMC meeting later. Expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve had underpinned the gains in the greenback and attributed to the recent recovery in the greenback. Today’s FOMC meeting may well largely be a non-event given that there will be no press conference from Powell or any dot plot projections, the Fed Funds Rate will almost definitely be left unchanged. As such, focus will be on the accompanying statement, however, USD bulls may be left a tad disappointed with the FOMC possibly only providing a slight hawkish tilt in language in regard to inflation given the building price pressures but the Fed will largely stick to a steady approach in order to not stoke too much market volatility. Elsewhere, the US ADP Employment report beat expectations at 204k (Exp. 200k), maintaining the picture of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown.

EUR: Unsurprisingly, Euro-Area growth moderated slightly in the first quarter of 2018 to 2.5% from 2.7%. The Euro saw a muted reaction given that the figures had printed in line with expectations, additionally, growth remains robust and will unlikely deter the ECB from its exit strategy with the next policy shift potentially being announced at the June/July meeting. The Q/Q reading fell to 0.4%, which was below the ECB’s 0.7% forecast for Q1, which may in turn lead to a downgrade in the ECB growth staff projections (released at the June meeting). Tomorrow’s inflation report will be in focus, whereby risks are tilted to the downside after a slowing in Germany’s price growth seen at the beginning of the week. 1.2000 is keeping EURUSD price action rather static for now, to the downside near-term support is situated at 1.1915 (Jan 9th low), while on the topside, 1.2015 represents the 200DMA.

GBP: Sterling has seen a mild reprieve this morning with support just under 1.3600, while also receiving a lift by the rise in UK Construction PMI, which printed ahead of expectations. More importantly, Construction PMI moved back into expansionary territory at 52.5 from the dire reading of 47 in March. However, this will unlikely be enough to provide stability for GBP, given last week’s poor Q1 growth report, which also came off the back of softer inflation. Alongside this, Brexit concerns have also been rising as the EU mounts the pressure on the UK to provide a workable solution for the Irish border. As such, this will likely keep a lid on Pound gains for now.

NZD: The 0.7000 level continuing to keep NZDUSD supported for now, overnight saw the release of a relatively mixed jobs report. Wage growth remained sluggish at 0.3%, underwhelming expectations of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate showed a surprise fall to the lowest level since Q4 2008 at 4.4%. This ultimately emphasizes the case that the RBNZ will likely be on hold for the foreseeable future.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, May 2, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: DXY Gains Stall as Investors Focus on FOMC Meeting

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, May 2, 2018

US AM Digest: DXY Gains Stall as Investors Focus on FOMC Meeting

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EURUSD

US AM Digest: DXY Gains Stall as Investors Focus on FOMC Meeting

IG Market Positioning Suggests EURUSD Outlook is Bearish

EURUSD: Data shows 53.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.16 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 0.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.7% lower than yesterday and 11.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Four Things Traders are Reading

  1. US Dollar Outlook for the May FOMC Meetingby Christopher Vecchio, SeniorCurrency Strategist
  2. Brexit Concerns Add to GBP Weakness Ahead of UK/EU Talks” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. Euro Sees Muted Response to Slowing Euro-Area Growth; Eyes on Inflation” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Rise as the FOMC Cools Hawkish Excess” by Ilya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist

The DailyFX US AM Digest is published every day before the US cash equity open - you can SIGNUP HERE to receive this report in your inbox every day.

The DailyFX Asia AM Digest is published every day before the Tokyo cash equity open - you can SIGNUP HERE to receive that report in your inbox every day.

If you're interested in receiving both reports each day, you can SIGNUP HERE.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES