We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/OTTEmg76W8
  • The immediate focus is on a break of this multi-week consolidation formation in the Australian Dollar with the broader rally vulnerable while below 7042. Get your AUD technical analysis here: https://t.co/iEYos1ioBc https://t.co/kuzB3Eqps0
  • #Gold prices have rallied to nine-year highs with the breakout testing multi-year uptrend resistance into the open of Q3. Can the rally be sustained? Download our latest Gold trading guide!: https://t.co/3KO2QWOnOt https://t.co/YIIGZdeIAJ
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/zerRXZC1Tq
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkd4B0k https://t.co/uj93z2SHpH
  • The Australian Dollar’s surge from the March lows may be coming to an end as bearish patterns begin to line up on multiple time-frames. Check out our #AUD trading guide to learn more here: https://t.co/pjfm07tqFd https://t.co/VypHLra1ER
  • The Evening Star candlestick is a three-candle pattern that signals a reversal in the market and is commonly used to trade forex. Learn more about the evening star candlestick pattern here: https://t.co/8OTE7m01IG https://t.co/Vumcng7UB3
  • After a miraculous recovery in Q2, equity markets will be left juggling the Fed’s policy and the threat of a second covid wave, all in an election year. Evidently, traders will have their hands full in Q3. Read our equity forecast here: https://t.co/JARqbOKIeM https://t.co/Ms6zEucjqg
  • Hey traders! I'm sure you've all heard about trend trading. Sharpen your knowledge here: https://t.co/jkliL5sxj7 https://t.co/uvlv1MCAHI
  • $GBPUSD posts impressive Q2 recovery, however, what upside challenges lie ahead in Q3? Download our #GBP trading guide to find out: https://t.co/ZE0yjc6wdQ https://t.co/bFa90VJYor
US Dollar Hinges on Consumer Confidence as Virus Cases Climb

US Dollar Hinges on Consumer Confidence as Virus Cases Climb

2020-06-29 22:05:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
Share:

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA EYED AMID RISING CORONAVIRUS SECOND WAVE RISK, FED CHAIR POWELL TESTIMONY ON TAP

  • US Dollar eyes upcoming consumer confidence data and a testimony from Fed Chair Powell
  • DXY Index lost upward momentum on Monday after rising for three straight trading sessions
  • USD price action has faced headwinds from FOMC support and unwavering investor optimism

The US Dollar, along with major stock market benchmarks, have maintained a holding pattern of indecision over the last several trading sessions. This largely corresponds with a juxtaposition of bullish and bearish drivers – like the Fed backstop and lingering coronavirus concerns as the trend in new virus cases re-accelerates. As traders search for a spark to fuel the next leg higher or lower, maybe this week’s jam-packed economic calendar could provide a catalyst with enough impetus to cause a break from recent ranges.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

Upcoming consumer confidence data set to be released by the Conference Board on Tuesday, June 30 at 14:00 GMT might take the spotlight with a focus on future expectations and labor market conditions in particular. This high-impact data release is scheduled to proceed a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell expected at 16:30 GMT.

DXY INDEX – US DOLLAR PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (25 MAR TO 29 JUN 2020)

US Dollar Price Chart DXY Index Technical Outlook

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Looking to US Dollar technicals, there is potential for the broader US Dollar to continue edging higher within its rising channel appearing from a series of higher highs and higher lows recorded throughout June. This bullish USD scenario could warrant more credence if the DXY Index can surmount confluent resistance posed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the US Dollar basket’s 14 May to 10 June leg lower.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

On the other hand, measures of expected volatility, such as the S&P 500 VIX Index, could keep bleeding lower as consumer confidence improves and the economy recovers. This stands to weigh negatively on USD price action considering the US Dollar’s posturing as a top safe-haven asset. As such, it is possible that the apparent rising channel might actually chalk up to be a bearish flag pattern.

Keep Reading – S&P 500 Price Outlook: VIX ‘Fear-Gauge’ Falls as Oil Rises

USD PRICE OUTLOOK – US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

USD Price Chart US Dollar Trading Outlook Consumer Confidence June 2020

In light of the conflicting fundamental drivers just mentioned, which seem to have facilitated relatively rangebound market activity, the US Dollar could continue to oscillate back and forth between key barriers of technical support and resistance.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Get Your Free USD Forecast
Get My Guide

That said, receding measures of implied currency volatility suggest US Dollar headwinds could persist due to the lack of risk aversion and sustained improvement in trader sentiment. Nevertheless, it is worth noting how longer-term US Dollar outlook remains constructive considering that stocks face peril as day of reckoning looms.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.