News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • JOLTS US job openings soar to 8.1M, the highest reading on record and well above the consensus forecast looking for 7.5M.
  • Not a pretty picture for the Nasdaq 100 which opens to its biggest bearish gap since October 2nd. Takes out the 100-day moving average and 38.2% Fib of the March-present range. The past year's trendline support still in place at ~12,900 https://t.co/5D2YW648Nc
  • Central Bank chat on tap later today. (BST/GMT+1) https://t.co/0RuBGVbW8m
  • US equities rebounding nicely after the opening bell on Wall Street. The recovery in risk appetite steers the US Dollar back down to intraday lows. $SPX $NDX $DJI https://t.co/6X7KA5i0iD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.53%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 72.62%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dbePxNbPXh
  • No false modesty today. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hammered on the open
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.25% Oil - US Crude: -0.43% Gold: -0.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/g3yEk5RMrg
  • US Dollar seeing a decent bid off session lows with yields pushing higher and stocks sliding amid fresh inflation jitters. $USD $DXY #Trading https://t.co/9jBEYNmZXM
  • Nasdaq slump leads global equity markets, inflation fears weigh on tech stocks. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/NrZ1C9WcsU https://t.co/pDOWtKCTuA
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.80% US 500: -1.17% France 40: -2.14% Germany 30: -2.32% FTSE 100: -2.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ZPlWhyluPf
US Dollar Price Volatility Report: Will China GDP Spark Havens?

US Dollar Price Volatility Report: Will China GDP Spark Havens?

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

US DOLLAR INDEX TESTING CRITICAL TECHNICAL SUPPORT LEVEL AS SELLOFF ACCELERATES

  • The US Dollar selloff is showing no signs of subsiding, but upcoming high-impact economic data releases like China GDP due Friday could create demand for safe haven currencies
  • USD price action looks to test key technical support levels with potential to springboard the greenback higher and keep the broader DXY Index afloat
  • Enhance your market knowledge with our free Forecasts & Trading Guides available for download

The US Dollar selloff continues to gain pace and has pushed the DXY Index well below the 98.00 price level. Yet US Dollar downside over the last two to three weeks is owed primarily to significant gains in EURUSD and GBPUSD driven by Brexit optimism.

Nevertheless, greenback weakness has begun to accelerate and spillover to other major US Dollar currency pairs like USDCHF and AUDUSD. As such, the US Dollar’s longstanding bullish trend could be in serious jeopardy if the DXY Index fails to quickly rebound off nearby technical support.

US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (JULY 17, 2017 TO OCTOBER 17, 2019)

US Dollar Index Price Chart Technical Analysis

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Yesterday I drew attention to the US Dollar’s apparent rising wedge pattern etched out over the last two years. The DXY Index now seems to be probing its bullish support line extended from the series of higher lows recorded early last year and June 2019 higher swing low, which is illustrated on the weekly chart above.

This area of confluent support is also underpinned by its 20-SMA. If the US Dollar fails to catch bid at this major technical level, however, the 50-week simple moving average in addition to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the DXY Index’s trading range since 2018 around the 97.00 handle could potentially keep USD price action afloat.

US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

US Dollar Price Volatility and Implied Trading Ranges Chart

Though the world’s reserve currency faces little event risk scheduled for Friday’s trading session according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar, the US Dollar may very well be impacted indirectly by the release of 3Q China GDP and industrial production data – particularly if the closely watched economic reports disappoint. A worse-than-expected China GDP report stands to echo the latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF which detailed another downward revision to its estimates for 2019 Chinese GDP growth.

Additional evidence of slowing global GDP growth potentially revealed in Friday’s release of China GDP data at 2:00 GMT not only stands to spark volatility but could also serve as a principal catalyst that sparks a rebound in the US Dollar and safe-havens alike. Conversely, a solid 3Q GDP print from China will likely propel the latest stretch of risk appetite and stands to exacerbate recent US Dollar weakness.

US DOLLAR RISK REVERSALS (OVERNIGHT)

US Dollar Price Risk Reversal Skew Readings Chart

Overnight US Dollar risk reversals point to forex options traders’ bearish bias on balance headed into Friday’s trading session. A risk reversal reading above zero indicates that the demand for call option volatility (upside protection) exceeds that of put option volatility (downside protection). For additional insight on market positioning and bullish or bearish biases, traders can turn to the IG Client Sentiment data, which is updated in real-time and covers several currency pairs, commodities, and equity indices.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES