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AUD/USD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBA

AUD/USD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBA

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Breaks Out, Threatens Bearish Momentum Ahead of RBA March Meeting.

- USD/CAD Holds Monthly Opening Range as BoC Governor Poloz Talks Down Rate-Cut Bets.

- USDOLLAR Risks Larger Correction as Fed Chair Janet Yellen Remains in No Rush to Normalize.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD breaking out following the positive data prints out of Asia-Pacific; will keep a close eye on former support around 0.8020 (38.2% expansion) to 0.8030 (61.8% retracement) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threatens the long-dating bearish momentum.
  • Despite the surprise rate cut, seeing narrowing expectations for another move at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March 3 meeting as Governor Glenn Stevens adopts a more neutral tone.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd turned net-short AUD/USD yesterday, with the ratio currently holding at -1.44.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD may continue to consolidate and retail the opening monthly range as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz argues that the surprise rate cut was an ‘insurance’ move; looks as though the central bank will retain its current policy at the March 4 meeting.
  • With that said, may need a larger fundamental catalyst to spur a break of the February range; keeping a close eye on the RSI as it retains the bearish momentum from earlier this month.
  • Long-term outlook remains bullish amid the policy divergence, but need a close above 1.2630 (23.6% expansion) to favor another run at 1.2800 (38.2% expansion).

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Read More:

Price & Time: The March Inflection Point in Crude

GBPNZD Responds to Key Support- Scalps Target Resistance at 2.0550

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11756.16

11779.21

11740.32

-0.20

68.87%

AUD/USD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBAUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar remains under pressure as Fed Chair Janet Yellen appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy; close below 11,774 (50% expansion) to favor downside targets as the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
  • U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may also dampen interest rate expectations as the headline reading is expected to show the first annualized contraction since July 2009..
  • Downside region of interest comes in around 11,721 (38.2%), which also lines up with channel support and the 50-Day SMA (11,705).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 20)

13:00

--

-3.5%

MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)

15:00

--

2.27%

MBA Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

15:00

--

5.68%

New Home Sales (JAN)

15:00

470K

481K

New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

15:00

-2.3%

-0.2%

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Delivers Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony

15:00

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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