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Price & Time: The March Inflection Point in Crude

Price & Time: The March Inflection Point in Crude

2015-02-25 13:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Key cyclical relationships converging soon in Crude
  • EUR/USD holds range support
  • Aussie cracks key resistance cluster to trade at new highs for the month

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: The March Inflection Point in Crude

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode below the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.1450
  • Important downside pivots are seen at 1.1260 and 1.1210 with weakness below needed to signal a broader downside resumption
  • A turn window is eyed around the end of the week
  • A close above 1.1450 would turn us positive on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Square for now.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.1260

1.1305

1.1375

1.1410

*1.1450

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: The March Inflection Point in Crude

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD punched through a key resistance cluster near .7880 overnight to trade at a new high for the month
  • A close above .7880 will turn us positive on the Aussie
  • Immediate resistance is seen around .7910 but the next real attraction on the upside looks to be around .7960
  • A very minor turn window is eyed at the end of the week
  • A move under .7825 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate

AUD/USD Strategy: Square, but may soon look to buy on weakness.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.7825

.7845

.7885

.7910

*.7960

Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE

Price & Time: The March Inflection Point in Crude

The month of March looks like it should be significant for Crude as it will be one “Pi cycle” of 8.6 months from the high recorded in June of last year. Regular readers will recognize that the euro recently turned around the 8.6 month interval of its 2014 high in late January. We should probably point out that Pi relationships have had a noted impact on Crude of late as last year’s high came right around 3.14 years from the 2011 high. Our dilemma at the moment is with what part of the month will be significant and have the most influence as the absolute high in crude was recorded on June 13th while the high close wasn’t seen until almost two weeks later on June 25th. Two weeks is an eternity in trading and is a fairly wide discrepancy. In commodity markets we have found that closing highs and lows tend to be more significant so our hunch is that if this cyclical relationship is going to influence the market like we suspect then it is more likely to occur around the middle of the month. Of course we can’t completely discount late next week as being significant, but we would probably need to see the commodity trade below 43.56 or above 54.05 to become more concerned about this potential. Ideally we would like to see oil trade to new lows into the key timeframe mid-month as this would set up the best chance for a meaningful reversal. We will write more as the situation becomes clearer.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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