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Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD Ahead of Greek Bailout Talks

Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD Ahead of Greek Bailout Talks

2015-02-19 16:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Range Vulnerable as Greece Struggles to Secure Bailout Extension.

- USD/CAD Rebound to Accelerate on Dismal Canada Retail Sales Report.

- USDOLLAR Holds Tight Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Forward-Guidance in Focus.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will continue to focus on the near-term range in EUR/USD as Greece struggles to secure an extension of its bailout program; will the event spur a ‘buy the rumor/sell the news’ reaction?
  • The Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) coming out of the euro-area may help limit the downside risk for EUR/USD as the data prints are expected to show a pickup in economic activity.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD, but seeing the ratio continue to narrow from the extreme readings from earlier this month as the ratio currently sits at -1.54.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • Near-term rebound in USD/CAD may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trade as Canada’s Retail Sales report is expected to show a 0.4% contraction in December; may spur speculation for another Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut.
  • Will also keep a close eye on oil prices amid the growing correlation with the Canadian dollar; crude remains vulnerable to a further decline as it struggles to hold above the $53 handle.
  • As USD/CAD continues to hold above the monthly opening low (1.2350), will keep a close eye on the string of lower-highs at 1.2696 and 1.2797.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Gold Rebounds

USDOLLAR Back in Pre-FOMC Range - Will Greece Deal Stoke EUR/USD?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11775.44

11798.17

11755.09

0.00

70.17%

Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD Ahead of Greek Bailout TalksUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar pares decline to 11,754 despite the slew of dismal U.S. data; despite the cautious tone laid out in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, seeing mixed reactions to the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric.
  • Will retain bullish view for USDOLLAR as it continues to close above 11,774; waiting for a break of the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a further advance in the greenback.
  • Until then, will continue to watch the near-term range of 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 14)

13:30

290K

283K

Continuing Claims (FEB 7)

13:30

2360K

2425K

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (FEB)

15:00

9.0

5.2

Leading Index (JAN)

15:00

0.3%

0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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