We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The USD may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/XnDITaDOox https://t.co/A480uVMqF2
  • What tools does the ECB have left to stimulate the Eurozone? Where is the #Euro heading? Find out from Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Claus Vistesen only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast hosted by @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/DXlDH5Cp9e
  • The price of oil extends the advance from the October low as #OPEC and its allies pledge to take additional steps to balance the energy market. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/llGq8yPFH4 #OOTT https://t.co/1OCVOIrK98
  • Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your gold technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ovGheRg4MQ https://t.co/ZEQSYktj0w
  • What is your #tradingstyle? Take the quiz and let us know: https://t.co/LPBOcS0Vtd https://t.co/l6FvtcADEH
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/dnrAMFK4U2
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
US Dollar Biased Higher as Haven Flows Trump Fed Rate Cut Bets

US Dollar Biased Higher as Haven Flows Trump Fed Rate Cut Bets

2019-06-01 10:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist


  • US Dollar torn between haven demand, Fed rate cuts in risk-off trade
  • Likely extent of Fed easing already priced in even as sentiment sours
  • Path of least resistance likely favors upside on back-to-back event risk

Did we get it right with our US Dollar forecast? Get it free to find out!

The US Dollar continued to struggle for a clear-cut lead last week. Moves to escalate the US trade war with China as well as open new fronts with the EU and Mexico have roiled markets already bedeviled by slowing global growth and a plethora of political uncertainties. The fate of Brexit alone is a tectonic risk. That stoked haven USD demand even as Fed rate cut expectations firmed, making for conflicting cues.

The severity of risk aversion seems decisive. Last week’s forecast argued that the Dollar “derives its anti-risk appeal from unrivaled liquidity. Put simply, the stronger the risk-off push – implying a greater premium on cash amid liquidation – the likelier USD is to benefit.” This likely remains in play. If investors prioritize safety over returns in earnest, a dovish Fed will fade in importance as a headwind for the Greenback.


Next week’s data docket offers plenty of opportunities to test these dynamics. In the US, global growth and Fed policy bets will collide again as ISM manufacturing and service-sector surveys lead into May’s jobs report. An RBA rate decision as well as Australian GDP and Chinese PMI data will offer a view on trade war damage in the meanwhile. More hand-wringing from the ECB is also on the menu.

As it stands, the markets are all but certain of one rate cut arriving at some point in fourth quarter and allow for the very slight probability of a second. Coupled with the Fed’s already planned move to stop balance sheet normalization, two cuts would amount to a lot of easing in a hurry. At that point, conditions would have probably deteriorated enough to insulate USD as panic selling drives haven flows.

Absent such pandemonium, the extent of what the Fed will offer in support this year looks to be all but fully priced in. That tips the scales in favor of anti-risk buying as the dominant Dollar driver going forward. Negative data outturns might muddy the waters briefly, but the overall landscape still argues for the upside as the path of least resistance.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter



DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.