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Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, NFPs, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, RBA

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, NFPs, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, RBA

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist
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Despite a Fed that left monetary policy unchanged, cooling sooner-than-anticipated tapering expectations, global market sentiment ended on a downbeat this past week. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed -0.36%, -0.37% and -1.11% respectively. European equities were mixed. The Dax 30 closed -0.8% as the FTSE 100 netted little changed.

It was much worse in the Asia-Pacific region. A crackdown by Beijing on technology and education companies sent regional shares tumbling. The CSI 300 and Hang Send Index closed -5.46% and -4.98% respectively. Rising Covid cases, amid the emerging more contagious Delta variant, are posing a risk to global growth.

Still, the haven-linked US Dollar ended lower, likely hindered by the ongoing decline in Treasury yields after the Fed as second-quarter US GDP data missed expectations. This dynamic particularly benefitted the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, China’s push to curb steel output to ebb pollution sent iron ore futures to a 3-month low. The Australian Dollar broadly underperformed.

There are a handful of key economic events to keep an eye out for in the week ahead. The Australian Dollar and British Pound will be eyeing the RBA and BoE respectively. Both central banks may brush aside recent inflationary pressures as temporary. The RBA could downgrade the economic outlook amid ongoing lockdowns in parts of the country.

Towards the end of the week, the United States and Canada will report jobs data for the Greenback and Loonie respectively. Economists now seem to be overestimating the health and vigor of the US economy, opening the door to disappointing data relative to expectations in the week ahead. Will this trend prevail and what are other key risks to watch for in the week ahead?

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Fundamental Forecasts:

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: US Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus After FOMC Week

The US Dollar slipped last week after the Federal Reserve calmed taper timeline talks. Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure may rekindle upside USD bets if it impressive.

Nasdaq 100 Retreats From Record Territory After FAANG Earnings. What Next?

Tech stocks pulled back from record territory after Amazon posted tepid Q3 guidance. The pandemic winners see their growth rates normalizing in the second half of the year, limiting the upside potential for the Nasdaq 100.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Moving Apart, Binance Shutters Some European Derivative Markets

Ethereum is starting to outperform Bitcoin again ahead of ETH’s latest upgrade, while Binance continues to pare back business areas amid ongoing regulatory pressure.

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Advance Should Continue After Strong Economic Data

Last week’s march higher in EUR/USD may well extend further after Friday’s Eurozone economic statistics that will likely turn the ECB more hawkish on monetary policy.

British Pound Forecast: GBP Caution as BoE Meeting Looms

A strong Covid-19 vaccine program reduces risks stemming from the Delta variant. BoE optimism on economic recovery grows.

Australian Dollar Outlook Bleak: AUD/USD Eyes RBA, Delta Variant, Beijing Crackdowns

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable in the week ahead, eyeing risks such as a dovish RBA, surging Covid cases and recent crackdowns by Beijing. Might US NFPs offer some relief to AUD/USD?

Mexican Peso Weekly Forecast: USD/MXN Back Within Key Range as USD Flops

USD/MXN drops back into its recent range as investors await further guidance from economic data

Technical Forecasts:

Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Technical Forecasts for the Week Ahead

The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 find themselves with significantly different technical formations but traders may find cause for optimism in both indices.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Extends Bearish Price Series Ahead of August

Recent price action in the US Dollar Index (DXY) casts a bearish outlook for the Greenback as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week.

Gold Forecast: Gold Tests Resistance, Can Bulls Bring the Break?

Gold teased a breakout this week but bulls quickly pulled back. Is the continued tanking of treasury yields highlighting something of note?

GBP Technical Forecast: GBP/USD May Continue Pullback

Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again.

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD May Stage a Rebound Near-Term on Delta Fears

USD/CAD has bounced off a key support area on Friday and could potentially charge higher in the coming week as risk-aversion over coronavirus fears has started to dominate market moves.

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Five-Week Plunge Halted at Support

Australian Dollar plunged for a fifth week but held key downtrend support at the yearly lows. The levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into August.

Crude Oil Forecast: Price Action Mired by Shaky Risk Appetite

Crude oil price action gained another 2.4% this past week, but the commodity remains more than -4% off its recent swing high with oil outlook being undermined by resurfacing covid concerns.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.