We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • While Sino-US trade jitters are temporarily abating, China-Swedish trade tensions are rising as a part of a political contagion of growing economic hostilities between nations across the world. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/F1fVoyzoz5 https://t.co/z49NzgZrXd
  • RT @malkudsi: Natural Gas Eyes Pushing Higher as Support Holds - Nat Gas Technical Analysis More details in the link below: https://t.co/HG…
  • As prices dance around on charts, traders are often looking for reasons to explain price movements; however, the underlying source of price movement boils down to the relationship between supply and demand. Learn more about the forces of S&D on forex here: https://t.co/8LfkLXbj2W https://t.co/swcuwAMGAk
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/4adyTWvQ22
  • What are the Market cycles? How are #currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact #forextrading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/gLJGj1FAOC
  • Central bank independence has several advantages and disadvantages. Find out what they are in-depth with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/J0MMkVmCUu
  • Get your stock market basics right - what is the stock market and how does stock trading work? Find out here: https://t.co/JfAJLAtlsY https://t.co/ZfPUxHWeiG
  • The Mexican economy contracted for the first time in almost 10 years in 2019, but growth is expected to pick up in 2020 according to its finance minister. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/gupJdU7WYT https://t.co/mMN8LFb5i5
  • EUR/USD has been weakening since the start of 2020 and the decline has accelerated this month. At some point there will be a correction but further losses are still likely as the year progresses. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/ieJUBNeAIf https://t.co/Dw4f7DQocg
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
Crude Oil Prices May Struggle Even if Coronavirus Fears Abate

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle Even if Coronavirus Fears Abate

2020-01-25 09:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
Crude Oil 2-hr Price Chart

CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST: BEARISH

  • Crude oil prices plunge amid worries about coronavirus spread
  • Soft sentiment may limit scope for gains if outbreak risk abates
  • FOMC and BOE rate decisions, US and Eurozone GDP on tap

Crude oil price volatility has perked up in 2020. The US-based WTI benchmark hit an eight-month high and a three-month low since the turn of the calendar year. The cumulative result has amounted to the biggest three-week loss since early June.

The early surge came amid worries that escalating conflict between the US and Iran would disrupt deliveries from the Middle East. At surface level, the subsequent selloff reflects the ebbing of those concerns, coupled with concerns about slowing global growth in the event of a true coronavirus outbreak.

CRUDE OIL PRICES MAY FIND LIFELINE IF CORONAVIRUS FEARS ABATE

The fourth quarter saw a cautious recovery in economic activity and a rosier tint to incoming data flow. An early batch of January PMI data from most major economies suggested positive momentum has been largely sustained, suggesting a firmer view on energy demand might have been more supportive.

This may yet materialize if the coronavirus scare dissipates without triggering a disruption akin to the SARS outbreak in 2003. That shaved about 1 percent of China’s GDP and reduced that of the Southeast Asia region by 0.5 percent. Total losses are estimated in the USD 30-100 billion range.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

SOURING SENTIMENT MAY LIMIT SCOPE FOR CRUDE OIL PRICE GAINS

Yet markets may remain pressured even if – as the World Health Organization has thus far concluded – the latest virus does not amount to an “emergency”. Sentiment itself may have become vulnerable as scope for upside surprises is exhausted in the near term while potent risks remain.

Late-2019 successes appear priced in. Building on the ‘phase-one’ US-China trade deal seems unlikely for at least a year and failing to secure an EU/UK trade deal before 2021 may yet trigger no-deal Brexit. In addition, the US presidential election is now a likely source of anxiety as traders weigh the candidate pool.

Thus far, these issues have amounted to a non-specific sense of unease. If any of them are reconstituted as a near-term threat to growth, concerns about the impotence of whatever policy response follows might compound negativity. As much was amply telegraphed from annual Davos economic forum last week.

Starts in:
Live now:
Feb 24
( 03:02 GMT )
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Cross-Market Weekly Outlook
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

FOMC AND BOE RATE DECISIONS, CHINA PMI, US AND EUROZONE GDP ON TAP

To this end, the week ahead offers plenty of opportunities for data-driven speculation. Rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England will offer the banks’ assessment of the macroeconomic backdrop. A first look at US and Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP readings as well as Chinese PMI numbers are also eyed.

The EIA will also release its Monthly Petroleum Supply report as well as the Annual Energy Outlook, offering a view on what it thinks the supply/demand balance will look like in the near to medium term. The usual offering of weekly inventory flow statistics is also due.

How cycle-sensitive crude oil prices respond to this barrage of news-flow might prove telling. If markets appear immune to seemingly supportive outcomes, the ill effects of a more deep-seated affliction than the coronavirus may well be preparing to emerge.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.