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The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

2015-10-30 20:54:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD HigherThe End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi:Bullish

The New Zealand Dollar took flight over the month of October. Much relief for NZD Bulls came this week specifically despite an overtly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve. Both central banks met on Wednesday, October 28 where Governor Graeme Wheeler gave an indication that further easing was necessary while the Federal Reserve set up expectations for a December rate hike. However, you would not know this by looking at price, which looks set to break out of a bull flag channel. A break above the channel could cause NZDUSD to test the 200-day moving average for the first time in 15 months, which currently sits near 0.7000.

On the domestic front, perceived dairy demand jumped on the announcement of the end of China’s one-child policy. New Zealand’s Fonterra saw a similar boost in demand a few years ago when China-produced milk was tainted causing illnesses that sent parents looking for higher-quality dairy out of New Zealand. The dairy industry accounts for roughly 25% of GDP and of New Zealand so that this announcement could have perpetual effects of increased demand.

Focus next week will be on the November 3rd unemployment report. A positive print and unemployment could help wipe the negative memory from October 29’s disappointing building permits print; which came in at -5.7% first expectations of four -4.9%. Another trend worth recognizing is the month-end boost to equities and the stabilization of economic data benefiting high-beta FX such as NZD and Emerging Markets. Should equities continue higher, it is unwise to rule out further gains to NZD despite RBNZ rhetoric. Also, AUDNZD hit the lowest price since early May, which opens the doors for a retest of 1.0476, the YTD low.

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