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New Zealand Dollar Gains as China Scraps One Child Policy

New Zealand Dollar Gains as China Scraps One Child Policy

2015-10-30 06:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Kiwi Dollar Outperforms Against Aussie as China Scraps One-Child Policy
  • US Price Growth Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook, Boosting US Dollar
  • See Economic Releases Right on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade. The two sentiment-linked currencies advanced alongside S&P 500 futures, hinting the move reflected firming risk appetite. The Kiwi pulled ahead of its Aussie counterpart asChina announced a decision to scrap its one-child policy. The move may fuel greater milk powder demand, amounting to a windfall for New Zealand dairy exporters.

Risk appetite was surprisingly durable despite a Bank of Japandecision to withhold additional stimulus. Options markets were heavily skewed in favor of Yen weakness ahead of today’s policy announcement, with the premium paid for the right to sell the currency compared with the right to buy rising to a five-year high. That suggested investors were betting on a dovish result. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and company saw things otherwise, voting 8-1in favor of the status quo.

Looking ahead, stock index futures hint the risk-on mood may continue. US news-flow is in focus on the data front, with September’s PCE inflation and third-quarter Employment Cost Index figures on the docket. Improvements are expected on both fronts, which may amplify the probability of a December Fed rate hike in the minds of investors and push the US Dollar higher.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (SEP)

-5.7%

-

-5.3%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (SEP)

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (SEP)

1.24

1.24

1.23

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (SEP)

-0.4%

1.1%

2.9%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (SEP)

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)

0.9%

0.9%

0.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (OCT)

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT)

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT)

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

00:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (OCT)

23.7

-

16.7

00:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (OCT)

10.5

-

-18.9

00:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT)

2

4

3

00:24

AUD

CBA/HIA House Affordability (3Q)

78.3

-

81.6

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (SEP)

0.8%

0.5%

0.6%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (SEP)

6.7%

6.3%

6.4%

00:30

AUD

PPI QoQ (3Q)

0.9%

-

0.3%

00:30

AUD

PPI (YoY) (3Q)

1.7%

-

1.1%

02:00

NZD

M3 Money Supply (YoY) (SEP)

8.5%

-

9.0%

03:22

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80T

¥80T

¥80T

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (SEP)

-2.6%

-

-4.7%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP)

2.6%

5.8%

8.8%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (SEP)

0.900M

0.936M

0.931M

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (SEP)

6.7%

-

-15.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)

0.4%

-0.6%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP)

4.1%

2.5%

Medium

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (OCT)

100.1

100.4

Low

09:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (SEP P)

11.9%

11.9%

Low

09:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (OCT)

-

42

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (SEP)

11.0%

11.0%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (OCT)

0.0%

-0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (OCT A)

0.9%

0.9%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0789

1.0872

1.0925

1.0955

1.1008

1.1038

1.1221

GBPUSD

1.5134

1.5213

1.5261

1.5292

1.5340

1.5371

1.5450

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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