News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.50% Silver: 0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/6m6mlA9J0I
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.05%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 69.35%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/0md6tHfJ37
  • Banxico: - Inflation shows require orderly adjustment in prices - Mid-Long term CPI expectations above 3% - Expects CPI to converge to target in 2Q 2022
  • Banxico: - Rate decision was unanimous - There are major challenges for monetary policy, citing highly uncertain economic environment - Future decisions depend on factors affecting CPI - Inflation has risen more than expected - Inflation risk tilted to the upside $MXN
  • Mexican #Peso maintaining intraday gains following #Banxico rate decision with $USDMXN hanging at session lows https://t.co/aMd2HlpHwt
  • 🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4% Expected: 4% Previous: 4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.98% US 500: 0.81% Germany 30: 0.02% France 40: -0.01% FTSE 100: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/THzITT5Kgr
  • Australian #Dollar Forecast: #Aussie Bulls Halted– $AUDUSD Range Break Imminent- https://t.co/JdSYBbD1Ur https://t.co/BeSbuNyork
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision due at 18:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4% Previous: 4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • - Inflation is being pushed up by temporary causes
Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecast: GBPUSD Price Rallies to a 2-Week High

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecast: GBPUSD Price Rallies to a 2-Week High

Nick Cawley, Strategist
GBPUSD

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points

  • Sterling neutral against most other G7 currencies.
  • GBPUSD pops higher as US dollar weakens further.

Q2 2019 GBP Forecast and Top Trading Opportunity

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Neutral

The outlook for Sterling remains neutral, and from a fundamental perspective is likely to stay that way, with Brexit negotiations currently on the back-burner as UK domestic politics take over. UK PM Theresa May stood down today but remains temporary PM until a new Conservative leader is chosen, with Brexiteer Boris Johnson still the firm favorite for the role he has coveted for so long.

Candidates for the leadership position will enter the fray on Monday (June 10) and the process of whittling down the list will continue until June 22 when just two candidates are left. Conservative party members are then expected to have one month (July 22) to decide on their preferred candidate with the new leader likely to be announced on July 23. The UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU on October 31.

Sterling is likely to remain rangebound during this process although pockets of volatility will occur as MPs decide who to back. The Pound will be susceptible to data releases on Monday and Tuesday next week, including the latest monthly growth projections, industrial and manufacturing data and the latest look at the jobs and wages figures on Tuesday.

The DailyFX Economic Calendar covers all market moving data releases and events.

Sterling

The Sterling basket continues it recent drift lower, although on the longer-dated chart above GBP has been making a series of higher lows since early 2016. GBPUSD however is ending the week on the front-foot, and at its best level in around two-weeks as the US dollar drops further. This USD weakness is likely to become entrenched further, especially after today’s (Friday) weaker-than-expected US Labour and wages data, while at least two 0.25% US interest rate cuts are expected in 2019.

GBPUSD currently trades around 1.2740 and any further move higher will be driven by the US dollar. A break back above 1.2800 may prove difficult in the short-term and we could well see a narrow, sideways, trading range developing over the coming weeks.

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 77.4% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that GBPUSD may soon reverse higher.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – June 7, 2019)

GBPUSD

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES