News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out:
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
Euro Fundamental Outlook: EURUSD Crumbles on Euro-Zone Growth Fears

Euro Fundamental Outlook: EURUSD Crumbles on Euro-Zone Growth Fears

2019-04-20 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

Euro (EUR) Talking Points:

  • EURUSD back below 1.1300 and this time it may be there for some time.
  • German finance ministry slashes 2019 GDP to just 0.5% from 1.0%.

The DailyFX Q2 EUR Forecast is available to download including our short- and medium-term look at the Euro.

Fundamental Forecast for EUR: Bearish

The single-currency is seemingly friendless against a raft of other currencies and looks set to move lower, shifting my forecast to bearish from neutral despite the current lowly levels. Not only are fundamentals looking negative, the EURUSD chart looks weak in the short- to medium-term with little in the way of support seen.

This week’s Euro-Zone data prints have been fairly neutral, but all remain at lowly levels with no encouraging signs seen in the releases. German manufacturing continues to sit at multi-year lows with the EZ’s economic export engine still suffering from the diesel emissions scandal, a growth slowdown in China, heightened US-EU trade fears and Brexit. This week the German finance ministry confirmed market rumors that the country’s 2019 growth would be a mere 0.5%, down from earlier tepid, expectations of 1% and sharply lower than the 2.1% predicted one year ago. Economic sentiment remains weak, and Germany now needs to work out how to boost growth via government investment and increased public consumption to make up for export-related losses. It is highly unlikely that the ECB will, or can, loosen monetary policy further as even lower – more negative – interest rates will rile German savers and put the Euro-Zone banking sector under further strain.

There could be worse to come. If US President Trump continues to look at additional tariffs on Euro-Zone exports, the EU will retaliate, leaving it in a no-win situation, while a No Deal Brexit – highly unlikely – would leave the single-block at risk of further taxes and tariffs. In 2017, the UK exported goods to the value of £274 billion to the EU while trade the other way saw the EU export £341 billion of goods to the UK, a £67 billion difference that in a No Deal Brexit would be under threat.

Next week’s economic calendar is thin with just German IFO readings on Tuesday and retail sales at the end of the week. The week’s highlight will likely be the ECB Economic Bulletin on Wednesday which should provide more analysis of economic and monetary developments in the single-zone.

DailyFX Economic Calendar


EURUSD currently trades around 1.1250 and nears old horizontal support at 1.1216. A break below exposes 1.1176 the recent 22-month low. Lower highs continue to dominate the chart and the pair trade below all three moving averages.

Looking for a technical perspective on the EUR Dollar? Check out the Weekly EUR Technical Forecast.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart – April 18, 2019


IG Client Sentiment data show 59.7% of traders are net-long EURUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests that EURUSD prices may fall further.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Forecast: Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Prices Stalling Ahead of US Energy Earnings and GDP Data

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.