News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Learning how to trade does not have to feel foreign. Hone your skills and build your confidence with free DailyFX guides today! https://t.co/lnxaQOsgid https://t.co/7myL4vGnt8
  • Using margin in forex trading is a new concept for many traders, and one that is often misunderstood. Margin is the minimum amount of money required to place a leveraged trade and can be a useful risk management tool. Learn about margin trading here: https://t.co/qZCE5asCzM https://t.co/yxE0OmLIP0
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/1mnOXUd00T https://t.co/iSrjZTeWwf
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/WeLInepZiD https://t.co/7B0KI8HehW
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM73cHA https://t.co/vGW5BygTXU
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here: https://t.co/xngExEdFdu https://t.co/kqpJ6oGXgt
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/F4dXbUzU3o https://t.co/G0ZWWVtSrZ
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfIZNKr https://t.co/5js6tWk5bY
  • The Euro has regained lost ground against its major counterparts recently. Are further gains in the offing or is this just a short-term countertrend correction? EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD key levels. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/Z71MZEIJWC https://t.co/YAr1kN4eKd
  • Coinbase’s impending initial public offering could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin to push to fresh record highs in the coming days. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/twdu0zqmIM https://t.co/72HRMZlKUn
Euro Forecast: Euro Rebound Faces Test with ECB Meeting on Thursday

Euro Forecast: Euro Rebound Faces Test with ECB Meeting on Thursday

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Euro Forecast: Euro Rebound Faces Test with ECB Meeting on Thursday

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral

- The Euro rallied to the top spot among the major currencies after rumors emerged that the ECB would use its June policy meeting to make a tweak to its QE program.

- At a minimum, it would seem that the ECB will pave the runway for an announcement about its QE program in July, that way it can make the change in September to ensure a smooth step down in the taper.

- The IG Client Sentiment Index continues to suggest a mixed outlook for EUR/USD as price continues its rebound.

See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Despite a weak close on Friday, the Euro emerged as the top performing currency last week buoyed by rumors of a potential change to the European Central Bank’s QE policy at its upcoming June meeting. Concurrently, political tension around the Euro dropped as the new populist Italian government appeared to soothe concerns about its budgetary plans. EUR/JPY and EUR/USD were the top performing pairs, up by +0.94% and +0.93%, respectively, while EUR/NZD was laggard, up by a meager +0.20%.

With the ECB’s June meeting scheduled for this coming Thursday, the Euro’s rumor-driven rebound faces a make-or-break moment. With the latest inflation readings having exhibited a surprising rebound in price pressures – the preliminary May Eurozone CPI reading came in at +1.9% y/y and is expected to remain there at the final release this Friday – signs are pointing to the ECB’s Governing Council making an announcement with respect to their QE program (as rumors would have it).

Logically, if the ECB’s QE program is set to run at a pace of €30 billion per month into September, then an announcement would need to be made before the current end date if the QE program is to continue. After the meeting this week, there are only two meetings left – July and September – before the QE program runs its course.

Accordingly, if the ECB under President Mario Draghi is following its usual playbook, it will use the June meeting and the new set of Staff Economic Projections to serve as the foundation for an announcement by the meeting in July about their intention to run the QE program at a taper pace of either €10 or €15 billion per month for three months through December, and the technical details of the new pace being released in September.

Ultimately, the ECB meeting this week simply serves as an appetizer to a forthcoming change. The forward guidance aspect of the ECB policy will prove to be the most important factor when all is said and done, as the majority of market participants at this point in time aren’t expecting the ECB to cull their QE program cold turkey in September when the current leg winds down. Along these lines, because a rate hike by the ECB is still at least a year away, traders may walk away from Thursday’s meeting disappointed, and the Euro rebound may soon fizzle.

Finally, as we’ve pointed out in recent weeks, positioning is no longer the significant factor it was earlier this year – really, less than two months ago. Speculators held +89.2K net-long Euro contracts through the week ended June 5, a -41% decline from the all-time high set during the week ended April 17 (+151.5K contracts). A major move by the Euro predicated on a saturated market position is unlikely in the short-term.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES