Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral
- Oil, Copper Surge on Upbeat Demand, Low USD; Gold Volatile to Fed Note
- Gold Price Flirting with Major Behavior Change
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Gold prices are firmer this week with the precious metal up 1.44% to trade at 1154 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The bulk of the advance came on Friday as the greenback struggled to hold its ground following the fresh batch of rhetoric coming out of the Federal Reserve.
Minutes from the September 17th FOMC policy decision highlighted greater concerns within the committee amid the ongoing disinflationary environment across the major industrialized economies paired with the slowdown in global growth. Despite the cautious tone, officials noted that it was ‘prudent’ to wait for further clarity on the economic outlook before adjusting policy with ‘many’ members still expecting to achieve liftoff later this year.
The remarks pushed stocks sharply higher while the dollar extended the decline from the previous week as expectations for an October Fed rate-hike continued to diminish. In turn, investors will be closely eyeing U.S. retail sales along with the key inflation reports on tap next week as the central bank argues that policy remains ‘data dependent.’ On the back of dismal September Non-Farm Payroll report, the inflation print will be of key importance with consensus estimates calling the core rate of consumer price inflation to remain steady at an annualized 1.8%. With the Dow Jones FXCM U.S.Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) marking its 4th consecutive day of losses on Friday, the greenback sits a key juncture as gold presses into a near-term resistance zone.
From a technical standpoint gold is set to close the week above the upper median-line parallel of a formation dating back to the 2014 high with Friday’s rally holding just below confluence resistance into 1159/62. This region is defined by the 61.8% extension off the yearly lows, the 100% extension off the September low & the Jun swing low. Note that the daily relative strength index is also testing a resistance trigger off the August high and a breach here alongside a rally through 1162 keeps the topside in focus targeting 1177 there the 200-day moving average & the median-line off the early low converge. Key resistance is seen high into 1197/98.The trade remains constructive near-term while above immediate support at the 10/2 reversal-day close / Friday’s low at 1138, with a break back below the monthly open at 1114 needed to shift the focus back to the short-side.