We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The latest UK General Election opinion polls continue to show the Conservative Party holding a strong lead over Labour and point to Boris Johnson winning a working majority in Parliament. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qF04EOUWkI https://t.co/LNl4bXbnpp
  • Recent polls have put Conservatives ahead of Labour and given a boost to $GBP. Get your #Brexit update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/l2n53C0cYY https://t.co/oTWfXkaDDt
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/xeromAGqqx
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/rCOG78QQ2M
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/JmZxckVHdS
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY #UKelection2019 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/07/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-GBPCAD-Outlook-as-UK-Election-Looms.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/iuILHYczJ7
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/WlEFlluGfZ #tradingstyle https://t.co/TkMtJQKatx
  • By issuing debt denominated in $USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/xV9urXXf48
  • What are some risk trading management techniques? Find out: https://t.co/RShdlDz9RA #tradingstyle https://t.co/M3ASPIHAep
Australian Dollar Could Get Some Respite If Employment Keeps Revving

Australian Dollar Could Get Some Respite If Employment Keeps Revving

2019-05-10 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUDUSD

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The RBA declined to cut rates last week
  • Futures markets still think it has merely delayed the inevitable
  • This week’s labor market numbers will offer a steer

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar rose sharply last week when the Reserve Bank of Australia shocked at least some of the market by declining to lower interest rates.

It then sank back again in quite short order as risk appetite went into full reverse, with investors worrying about the chances of a trade deal between China and the US. Many saw an agreement as highly likely when May got started. It’s still surely possible, but expectations have been reined in as rhetoric between Beijing and Washington heats up.

Here then is a familiar Australian Dollar backdrop, with global risk appetite on one hand and domestic monetary policy on the other. Each will exert its pull in the coming week, probably overriding relatively minor Australian economic data releases such as the gauges of business and consumer confidence.

However, Wednesday will see the release of official employment figures. Given the very high relevance given by the RBA to this series when it comes to monetary policy settings, these are likely to make a mark on the Aussie however they go.

Strong numbers could well see the Australian Dollar make at least short-term gains. Taking the RBA at its word, continued health in the labor market would seem to make lower interest rates less likely. However, it is notable that rate-futures markets still effectively price in two quarter point reductions in the Official Cash Rate over the next eighteen months.

This suggests perhaps that not everyone thinks the labor market is quite as important as the RBA would have us believe, and that the prospect of lower rates will continue to weigh on the currency for some time yet.

Still, another punchy employment readout may see strength for a currency which, that data aside, is likely to be most influenced by the general global appetite for risk.

With that data particularly in mind, it’s a cautious neutral call this week.

Looking for a technical perspective on the AUD? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

aud/usd

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.