News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (APR) due at 05:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.3% Previous: 3.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-07
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0uF2Ct https://t.co/vTQL8Xy7DA
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/b4xjlLMx2o
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.10%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.76%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dlo1iyakWu
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.13% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.08% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/DFYLycgM4p
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.59% Germany 30: 0.55% FTSE 100: 0.47% US 500: 0.07% Wall Street: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Bl2cnt8tKJ
  • Ahead of Friday's NFPs, the Dollar took a dive this past session which has set back a DXY inverse head and shoulders and pushed a EURUSD rising wedge. But the pair taking most advantage of the Greenback slip: $USDCAD. Watch this pair and the Dollar ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/07/Dollar-Break-Disarms-Bigger-Reversal-Before-NFPs-Canadian-Dollar-a-Big-Mover.html https://t.co/WiHjD9XBRI
  • The Canadian Dollar may resume its broader advance against the Japanese Yen given the less-dovish scope of the BoC compared to the BoJ now and perhaps in the long run.Get your $CAD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LjuvBh7pL3 https://t.co/ItAq5lCrLj
  • 🇨🇳 Balance of Trade (APR) Actual: $42.85B Expected: $28.1B Previous: $13.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-07
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Balance of Trade (APR) due at 03:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $28.1B Previous: $13.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-07
Australian Dollar Could Wilt If Focus Returns To Interest Rates

Australian Dollar Could Wilt If Focus Returns To Interest Rates

David Cottle, Analyst
AUD Price Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • AUD/USD rose sharply last week
  • Lots of different factors and markets moved in the bulls’ favor
  • Focus will return to interest rates this week. That may make life tougher for them

Looking for a technical perspective on the Australian Dollar? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

The Australian Dollar rose to two-month highs last week, lifted by a complex cocktail of invigorating ingredients both foreign and domestic. Before we get into the chances of its bullish aftertaste enduring, let’s take a look at them,

First of course there was the US Federal Reserve. It left interest rates alone as expected, but its accompanying commentary was interpreted by markets as more cautious on the chance of future rises. This weakened the US Dollar quite broadly, with its Australian cousin benefitting at least as much as other major traded currencies.

Then came Australian inflation numbers for the last quarter of the old year. These were still below target but, by a whisker, not the extent markets had feared. Commodity markets were playing ball too, with crude oil prices rising on news that Saudi Arabia was cutting supply to the US, among other factors. Australia’s great cash cow- iron ore- also saw strong gains thanks to Brazilian production stoppages following a lethal mine-dam burst.

Hopes for progress, at least, in US/China trade talks also lifted the Aussie. Australia has more skin in this game than most third countries thanks to its strong economic and political links to both main actors.

It wasn’t all good news for Aussie bulls though- not quite. China’s manufacturing sector was shown to have continued the contraction which began in December, with its private sector sliding at its fastest pace since 2016.

So, what of this week?

Well, AUD/USD is certainly sailing into it with a rare degree of support, despite those Chinese data. There’s plentiful Australian economic news on tap but the main event will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. No change is expected to the record low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate which has been stuck since August 2016.

The most obvious headwind for the currency is that markets now expect the OCR to head still lower this year- a prognosis clearly expressed in the value of rate-futures contracts. The trouble is that the RBA insists that the next move, be it never so long delayed, will be a rise. Board member Ian Harper said so again just last week and is reasonable to assume that Governor Philip Lowe will restate this view following the policy call.

If he does, and futures pricing persists in its dissent, then the focus could return to what in any event looks like an utter lack of near-term interest rate support for the currency. That may well take some of the Aussie’s recent shine off, even if only temporarily.

It’s a bearish call this week.

AUDUSD Chart

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES