News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out: https://t.co/G0qfpOmMl2 https://t.co/HXCQzUQgxA
  • The US Dollar will be bracing for a cascade of political risks including the first presidential debate, ongoing stimulus talks, the Supreme Court vacancy against the backdrop of key employment data. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/quU4MmUjxA https://t.co/jF6ubwRz1P
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/PfIVibmqn1
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/lKvEMf4QRe
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/GGVrB3r7if https://t.co/HPHUC8EG3o
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/q80wSAoxXP
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/7mc19Gxrvm
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/09/26/Gold-Price-Outlook-Rising-US-Dollar-Sinks-XAUUSD-Will-Losses-Extend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gPhy0KoW3W
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDnpPbn https://t.co/Xtk5g4JQEB
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/SsUguHB39W
Australian Dollar: More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask

Australian Dollar: More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask

2017-07-15 04:17:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
Australian Dollar: More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The Aussie was a currency market star last week
  • Between market reaction to Fed Chair Yellen and stronger iron ore prices it couldn’t lose
  • Next week may not see it build on these gains

Join us and join in with live, interactive coverage of all major Asia/Pacific economic data at the DailyFX webinars

The Australian Dollar enjoyed a better week than might have been expected last week, mostly thanks to the broad-based US Dollar weakness which came along with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony. (Full disclosure: it enjoyed a better week than I expected before the fact).

Whether Ms. Yellen was really being especially less-hawkish or more-dovish on monetary policy when she said that the Fed was prepared to continue, or intensify, stimulus measures if inflation were seen to wilt is at this point moot. Markets clearly thought that she was and acted accordingly.

The Australian Dollar was arguably a special beneficiary of this. With Australian rates at record lows and likely to remain so well into next year, it makes sense that any roll back of prospects for tighter Fed policy should support it.

However, perhaps the Fed isn’t the only thing helping AUD/USD, even if it seems to be the main prop of the moment. Base metal prices have done well recently, in part thanks to news that China’s demand for iron ore has risen. The price of this key Australian export is at ten-week highs, even though it remains well down for 2017 as a whole.

Wherever it comes from, there’s a tailwind behind the Aussie as it moves into a new week.

The first big risk event will come Monday with the release of China’s Gross Domestic Product numbers for the second quarter. The markets are looking for a chunky 6.8% annualized gain and it will be interesting indeed to see how the actual result affects the Aussie. The initial reaction will probably mirror the strength or weakness of the number, but the extent to which this price action holds will show us the way in which China is driving the currency now.

Investors will also have sight of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last set of policy-meeting minutes. That July 4 meeting saw the RBA leave rates at record lows and decline to join the more hawkish chorus sung by many developed market central banks. Thursday’s official unemployment from Australia will also draw the crowds. The labor and housing markets appear to be the RBA’s main monetary policy watchpoints.

If all the economics line up as expected, it’s hard to see a meaningful fall for the Australian Dollar this week. That said, a fair amount of good news could now be in the price and so a neutral call is probably warranted.

Australian Dollar: More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES