News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.30% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FMpuAZcLAz
  • BoE's Bailey - We don't think higher inflation will persist - We are watching inflation very carefully - US inflation number yesterday was very high - Will watch very carefully for how much of savings are spent by households
  • BoC's Macklem: - Important to get a bounce back of all sectors - Canada is still about 700K jobs below where it should be
  • BoC's Macklem: - We do expect inflation to rise to around 3% - Increase in inflation will be temporary - Inflation to come down because some sectors still weak $CAD $USDCAD
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.22% US 500: 1.04% Germany 30: 0.09% FTSE 100: 0.05% France 40: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qXutk9LfLr
  • Hey traders! CPI figures were the highlight yesterday morning. What impact is the inflation figure having on the markets today? Find out from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/CWXQ2hx2tE
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Read an article from Reuters about banks sharing deposit information on clients to evaluate extending credit to those with no credit score. With so much liquidity we keep pushing lending down the credit scale. I'm sure someone is already working out an APR with Bill Hwang
  • USDCAD: Since the BoC’s hawkish taper, CAD strength has been dominant with USD/CAD dropping over 4.8% and hitting a six year low. Get your $USDCAD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/aEc5McOPFS https://t.co/FGO4EuxJR5
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/1mjDURi237
US Dollar Torn Between Domestic Strength, Global Headwinds

US Dollar Torn Between Domestic Strength, Global Headwinds

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
USD

US DOLLARFUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • US Dollar may not capitalize on firm data flow, status-quo Fed
  • Data from China and the Eurozone, Brexit vote menace markets
  • US-China trade war talks a wildcard as China’s Liu visits DC

Gain confidence in your US Dollar trading strategy with our free guide!

A deluge of scheduled event risk is due in the week ahead. Domestically, the year’s first FOMC rate decision and accompanying press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be accompanied by a first look at fourth-quarter GDP data and January’s jobs report. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP and Chinese PMI data will inform global growth bets as the UK Parliament votes on a tweaked Brexit withdrawal bill.

A seemingly overlooked bit of timely US economic data – a rarity amid the US government shutdown of the past three weeks – painted a rosier picture than analysts predicted. January’s flash PMI surveys showed the pace of economic activity growth in the nonfarm sector unexpectedly accelerated from the prior month. That might foreshadow uplifting outcomes as next week’s statistical releases cross the wires.

For its part, the US central bank is unlikely to alter its core message calling for a wait-and-see approach on further interest rate hikes. If nothing else, policymakers will probably want to wait to backfill some of the economic data held up by the shutdown before turning the dial one way or another. That may be interpreted as modestly hawkish by markets hoping to see quantitative tightening slowed or paused.

Looking for a technical perspective on the US Dollar? Check out the Weekly USD Technical Forecast.

US DOLLAR AT RISK IF MARKET MOOD IMPROVES

While this seems like a broadly supportive backdrop for the US Dollar, that need not be the case. The currency has held up remarkably well against a backdrop of evaporating Fed rate hike expectations since October. Support looks to have come from haven-seeking flows driven by the very same late-2018 market rout that inspired the dovish adjustment in the priced-in policy outlook.

If incoming fundamental news-flow presents a stronger US economy than investors are envisioning, that will probably buoy risk appetite and punish safety-oriented assets. To the extent that the Greenback has been a beneficiary of anti-risk demand, this may emerge as a headwind. Any lasting upturn in sentiment will probably need compliance from macro level forces however.

DATA FROM EUROPE AND CHINA, TRADE WAR FEARS MAY SAP RISK APPETITE

This may be challenging. Economic data flow out of the Eurozone and China has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since September and November of last year, respectively. That bodes ill for next week’s releases. Meanwhile, proponents of the UK government’s updated Brexit deal seem unlikely to close the 230-vote gap needed for passage despite fresh support from the DUP.

The outcome of a visit by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to Washington DC for renewed trade talks is something of a wildcard. Members of the Trump administration have offered conflicting cues, with economic adviser Larry Kudlow talking up progress even as Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the negotiating positions of the world’s top-two economies are still “miles and miles apart”.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Look Past CPI Report for the Fed and US Data

British Pound Forecast – Positive Backdrop, Bullish Outlook

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES