We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Lk229DNh6n
  • Catch up with @JStanleyFX as he walks through some FX price action setups post-FOMC. Get your recap here: https://t.co/MD2PB33t0L
  • What is the @ecb (European Central Bank)? What are the key mandates of the bank and how can it affect the #forex market? Find out: https://t.co/romV4hPQJv https://t.co/4nlCaUNhpD
  • Your psychology has a significant impact on the decisions you make, particularly if you are new to trading. How can you avoid your emotions from turning you into a #FOMO trader? Find out: https://t.co/FC7CHpk9vA #FOMOintrading https://t.co/WSDr3JkpAG
  • $AUDUSD: Short-term support could lead-in to a quick bounce up to resistance as taken from another prior support level, plotted around the .6830 level on the chart. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/tUoe1Roo5t https://t.co/omaDxGNhZU
  • Central bank independence has several advantages. Find out what they are in detail with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/cQQmuH8biQ
  • The US Dollar remains in consolidation mode against the Philippine Peso and Indian Rupee. Will the Singapore Dollar weaken as $USDSGD rising support holds ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/6PCFkdj3ka
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/Da10QUg9r1
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/aT8TZjlFqP https://t.co/Le8Qx6OOwV
  • $GBPUSD at the moment break-even straddles = 152pips meaning that for option traders to realize gains, the spot price must see a move greater than 152pips. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/odj2lLRrGf https://t.co/RXCBwHGluG
Australian Dollar Could Get Some Respite If Employment Keeps Revving

Australian Dollar Could Get Some Respite If Employment Keeps Revving

2019-05-10 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

AUDUSD

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The RBA declined to cut rates last week
  • Futures markets still think it has merely delayed the inevitable
  • This week’s labor market numbers will offer a steer

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar rose sharply last week when the Reserve Bank of Australia shocked at least some of the market by declining to lower interest rates.

It then sank back again in quite short order as risk appetite went into full reverse, with investors worrying about the chances of a trade deal between China and the US. Many saw an agreement as highly likely when May got started. It’s still surely possible, but expectations have been reined in as rhetoric between Beijing and Washington heats up.

Here then is a familiar Australian Dollar backdrop, with global risk appetite on one hand and domestic monetary policy on the other. Each will exert its pull in the coming week, probably overriding relatively minor Australian economic data releases such as the gauges of business and consumer confidence.

However, Wednesday will see the release of official employment figures. Given the very high relevance given by the RBA to this series when it comes to monetary policy settings, these are likely to make a mark on the Aussie however they go.

Strong numbers could well see the Australian Dollar make at least short-term gains. Taking the RBA at its word, continued health in the labor market would seem to make lower interest rates less likely. However, it is notable that rate-futures markets still effectively price in two quarter point reductions in the Official Cash Rate over the next eighteen months.

This suggests perhaps that not everyone thinks the labor market is quite as important as the RBA would have us believe, and that the prospect of lower rates will continue to weigh on the currency for some time yet.

Still, another punchy employment readout may see strength for a currency which, that data aside, is likely to be most influenced by the general global appetite for risk.

With that data particularly in mind, it’s a cautious neutral call this week.

Looking for a technical perspective on the AUD? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

aud/usd

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.