News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar finished off an eventful week after CPI and retail sales injected volatility into markets. FOMC is now in the Greenback’s sights as taper talks linger. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/MHi0lfQ93j https://t.co/4XetwYAaNd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/ZZRLV0Wkea
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bearish Gartley pattern, which hints at further downside potential. Negative MACD divergence on the weekly chart suggests that upward momentum may be fading. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/GkMEkVA7YR https://t.co/E1vyCMVt6K
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1G4lMu https://t.co/2TpkkUu7Hg
  • Tesla boss Elon Musk is seemingly running the cryptocurrency market single-handed this week with his tweets prompting a massive sell-off before today’s sharp rally. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qGci02osOP https://t.co/Yp24Sakrfl
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/LDP3HlN4A3
  • GBP/USD on the front foot to close the week. Bulls aim for YTD peak, while EUR/GBP range is maintained. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/neGBchlJ0O https://t.co/KME51FSF0D
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCrRwD https://t.co/7w5jodyzj0
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/L3LPCph2ST
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/ysxKO30ZWw
Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, USD/CAD Levels to Watch

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, USD/CAD Levels to Watch

Daniel Moss, Analyst

Canadian Dollar, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, BoC – Talking Points:

  • USD/CAD set to extend its run lower as it dangles above short-term support
  • ‘Golden Cross’ formation may fuel a surge in CAD/JPY rates
  • CAD/CHF coiling up to close out the month

BoC Flag Monetary Policy Limitations, CAD May Benefit

The Canadian Dollar may continue to outperform its haven-associated counterparts into the tail-end of the year, buoyed by the loosening of coronavirus restrictions, relatively resilient oil prices and the Bank of Canada’s suggestion that monetary policy may be at its effective limit.

The BoC’s Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins warned that “central banks are likely to run out of conventional firepower if we see an economic downturn in a low-interest-rate world” at the central bank’s Monetary Policy Framework review on August 26.

Wilkins added that although measured inflation “is close to zero, many people feel that inflation is higher than reported” and cited the example of the 4% rise in the Canadian meat prices since February as unreflective of “low inflation”.

These comments from the BoC’s second-in-command could indicate that the central bank is contemplating rolling back some of its existing policy measures in the near-term, which may serve to underpin the Canadian Dollar against its major counterparts.

USD/CAD Daily Chart – Schiff Pitchfork Guiding Price Lower

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, USD/CAD Levels to Watch

USD/CAD daily chart created using TradingView

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD rates appear to be gearing up for an extended push lower as price consolidates below the psychologically pivotal 1.32 level after snapping through the 2011 uptrend earlier in the month.

Although the RSI has trekked higher since sliding into oversold territory in early June, it remains confined by the downtrend extending from the yearly extremes while the MACD indicator continues to hover below 0.

This could be indicative of lacking bullish momentum and may encourage selling pressure in the near term.

A daily close below the August 26 low (1.3132) would probably result in price sliding to support at the 50% Fibonacci (1.3039), with oversold readings on the RSI likely exacerbating the decline.

On the other hand, a limited recovery back to confluent resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci (1.3198) and Schiff Pitchfork parallel could eventuate as the month of August comes to a close.

A break above the 1.32 level is needed to invalidate bearish potential and inspire a sustained recovery to resistance at the June low (1.3316).

CAD/JPY Daily Chart – ‘Golden Cross’ May Ignite Rally

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, USD/CAD Levels to Watch

CAD/JPY daily chart created using TradingView

CAD/JPY rates seem poised to extend the recent rally from the July low (77.62) despite failing to overcome resistance at the 81 mark and sliding back to support at the July 22 close (79.83).

In fact, this retracement from the monthly high may have validated the topside break of the Descending Triangle continuation pattern and suggests CAD/JPY could push above the 2015 downtrend (red zone) to fulfil the implied measured move (84.10) just shy of the yearly high (84.74).

With that in mind, a close above the August high (80.99) is needed to signal a resumption of the 4-week uptrend and would probably coincide with the RSI climbing into overbought territory.

On the other hand, a bearish Shooting Star candle could inspire sellers and possibly generate a more sustained correction back to the 21-day moving average (79.86).

CAD/CHF Daily Chart – Coiling Up to Close Out August

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, USD/CAD Levels to Watch

CAD/CHF daily chart created using TradingView

The Canadian Dollar has clawed back lost ground against the Swiss Franc throughout the month of August, as CAD/CHF coils up just shy of the June low daily close (0.6925).

Although price has oscillated in a tight 100-point range, the RSI and MACD indicators hint at swelling bullish momentum.

Furthermore, the notable steepening of the 21-day moving average alongside a series of higher highs and higher lows (0.6869) could fuel a surge to test Symmetrical Triangle resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci (0.6974).

With a daily close above the July low (0.7001) probably coinciding with the RSI snapping its 8-week downtrend and carving a path for price to test the sentiment-defining 200-DMA (0.7065) and 2015 low weekly close (0.7071).

-- Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES