We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 90.5 Previous: 95.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 83.8 Previous: 91.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.11%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/iDDH4lPCbr
  • New Zealand: PM Ardern announces limit for social gatherings will increase to 100 people effective May 29 and will consider moving to Alert Level 1 no later than June 22.
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/keYyC5HU2W
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.70% France 40: 0.59% US 500: 0.48% Wall Street: 0.47% FTSE 100: 0.45% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/xOwZKCllxo
  • The British Pound has depreciated against all of its major counterparts so far in May, and the weakness may persist as GBP/USD takes out the April low (1.2164). Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/y1EYdCA1W3 https://t.co/2ZNDE4Gucx
  • Japan: Finance Minister Aso says that jobless rate is expected to go up a little in May while speaking in parliament and states that the bottom hasn't fallen out of the economy. - BBG
  • LIVE NOW: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will analyze the cross-asset impact of geopolitical risks affecting markets in the week ahead. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • Wall Street Futures Update: S&P 500: +0.32% Dow Jones: +0.35% NASDAQ 100: +0.38% (delayed) - BBG
Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI Cascade

Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI Cascade

2020-04-24 07:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

Euro Outlook, EUR/USD, Eurozone Economy, PMI Data, Coronavirus – Talking Points

  • Euro may fall if German IFO data underwhelms
  • Dismal PMI releases darkened growth outlook
  • EUR/USD broke below key support: what next?

Asia-Pacific Recap

US equity futures along with APAC stocks aimed lower early into Asia’s Friday trading session while crude oil prices edged slightly higher. FX markets reflected what appeared to be a risk-off tilt in market dynamics with the Australian and New Zealand Dollars at the time suffering a similar affliction as their growth-oriented peers. There did not appeared to have been a clear catalyst behind the moves.

Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI Report, Political Debacle

The Euro may fall if German IFO data reinforces the negative outlook for the Eurozone economy after flash PMI data for April showed alarming figures. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned EU policymakers that Eurozone GDP could fall as much as 15 percent in 2020. This comes as European leaders continue to debate on how to best deal with the issue of paying for the coronavirus stimulus measures.

Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI Cascade

Source: IHS Markit

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

The gloomy outlook was amplified when the United States – the largest economy in the world – printed its own figures with similarly gloomy implications. According to the report “Services companies registered the steepest rate of decline in the survey’s history, while manufacturers recorded the sharpest fall in sales since the depths of the financial crisis in early-2009”.

Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI CascadeEuro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI Cascade

Source: IHS Markit

Digression aside, German IFO data for Business Climate, Expectations and Current Assessment are anticipated to show a 79.7, 75.0 and 80.5 prints, respectively. An underwhelming reading could add to the slew of worrying data that continues to hammer the Euro as regional growth prospects deteriorate. Political tension – as I outlined this week – may magnify liquidation pressure in Euro crosses.

Top Trading Lessons
Top Trading Lessons
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Top Trading Lessons
Get My Guide

For more in-depth analysis be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

Euro Analysis vs US Dollar

As forecasted, EUR/USD broke below a key inflection point at 1.0783, potentially precipitating what could be an aggressive selloff if the breach is met with follow-through. While it appears that steep descending resistance (labeled as “Downtrend Alpha”) is invalidated, it is still possible for EUR/USD to decline at a similarly steep slope of depreciation. The next major point to monitor may then be support at 1.0654.

EUR/USD – Daily Chart

Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After Dismal PMI Cascade

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

EURO TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.