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US Dollar May Add to Post-FOMC Gains on 3Q GDP Data

US Dollar May Add to Post-FOMC Gains on 3Q GDP Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Add to Post-FOMC Gains if 3Q GDP Data Tops Estimates
  • Risk-Averse Dynamics Confined to FX Space in Uneven Overnight Trade
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed while the safety-linked Japanese Yen traded broadly higher in overnight trade. While this seems emblematic of classic risk aversion, a broad-based response across asset classes typically seen at sentiment extremes did not materialize, with mixed performance noted across Asian bourses.

This lack of clarity seems to mirror the broader inconsistency in the behavior of risk trends following the FOMC monetary policy announcement. The outcome was decidedly hawkish, with the US Dollar moving broadly higher and Fed Funds futures showing a greater probability of a December 2015 rate hike. Risk appetite looked indecisive however, with the S&P 500 swiftly erasing an initial spike downward to close at a two-month high.

This presumably reflects competing interpretations of what a Fed rate hike means. The risk-on argument contends that the need to tighten monetary policy speaks to strength of the US economy. The risk-off side of the debate warns that higher borrowing costs will only compound headwinds at a time when global growth is slowing thanks to a slowdown in China and sluggish performance in Europe. The markets are seemingly unsure of which narrative is more compelling thus far.

A bit of clarity may be had as the preliminary set of third-quarter US GDP figures crosses the wires. The annualized growth rate is expected to register at 1.6 percent, down from 3.9 percent recorded in the three months through June. US economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts recently, hinting analysts’ models are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise.

Such a result may boost the likelihood of a 2015 Fed rate hike in the minds of investors, pushing the greenback higher. The impact on risk sentiment trends is unclear for now but whatever happens may help establish a dominant paradigm in the days and weeks ahead.

German CPI data is also on tap. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.2 percent in October after registering flat in the prior month. Price-growth figures out of the Eurozone’s largest economy have printed below consensus forecasts in all but two months since the beginning of the year. More of the same this time around may bolster ECB stimulus expansion bets, punishing the Euro.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:00

NZD

RBNZ Official Cash Rate

2.75%

2.75%

2.75%

20:30

CAD

CFIB Business Barometer (OCT)

58.9

-

56.0

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P)

1.0%

-0.6%

-1.2%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P)

-0.9%

-2.6%

-0.4%

00:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)

-4.0%

-

2.3%

00:30

AUD

Import price index (QoQ) (3Q)

1.4%

1.5%

1.4%

00:30

AUD

Export price index (QoQ) (3Q)

0.0%

0.6%

-4.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (MoM) (OCT)

0.5%

0.5%

Medium

07:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (YoY) (OCT)

3.8%

3.8%

Medium

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (OCT)

-4K

2K

Medium

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate (OCT)

6.4%

6.4%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (SEP)

1.1B

0.9B

Low

09:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (SEP)

3.3B

3.4B

Low

09:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (SEP)

72.4K

71.0K

Medium

09:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (SEP)

-

-0.4%

Low

09:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (SEP)

-

-0.1%

Low

09:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (SEP)

2.7%

2.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (OCT)

105.1

105.6

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (OCT)

0.31

0.34

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (OCT)

-2.7

-2.2

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (OCT)

12.0

12.4

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (OCT F)

-7.7

-7.7

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (OCT)

35

49

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (OCT P)

-0.1%

-0.2%

Medium

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (OCT P)

0.2%

0.0%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0574

1.0773

1.0848

1.0972

1.1047

1.1171

1.1370

GBPUSD

1.5090

1.5188

1.5226

1.5286

1.5324

1.5384

1.5482

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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