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GBP up on Fresh Brexit Optimism, Crude Oil Record Losses Continue - US Market Open

GBP up on Fresh Brexit Optimism, Crude Oil Record Losses Continue - US Market Open

2018-11-13 14:40:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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MARKET DEVELOPMENT – RECORD LOSING STREAK FOR CRUDE, GBP LIFTED, YUAN INTERVENTION

Crude Oil: Following the record run of consecutive daily losses, Brent and WTI crude oil prices have yet to find much reprieve. Initial optimism stemming from OPEC and their plans to cut oil production had been rebuffed by President Trump, who stated that he hopes, Saudi Arabia and OPEC would not cut production, adding that oil prices should be much lower. OPEC also expects the bearish sentiment to last with the cartel warning of a global oil glut in 2019, according to the latest monthly OPEC report. As such, oil prices remain on the backfoot, albeit off worst levels.

GBP: A fresh wave of Brexit optimism has once again lifted the Pound. Initially this had stemmed from comments made by the Deputy PM, who stated that a deal could be reached within the next 24-48 hours. Alongside this, source reports added that the UK Cabinet expects text over the Irish border backstop to be completed today with the potential for a sign off deal by tomorrow. However, as is so often the case, Brexit optimism may well be faded, unless there is something tangible. Elsewhere, UK data had been relatively encouraging with UK wages rising at the fastest pace in 10yrs, also benefiting the Pound.

CNH | CNY: The steady drop in the Yuan’s value has showed very little signs of abating with a breach of the 7.00 handle increasingly likely. However, with reports that Chinese banks had been intervening at 6.97, a break of 7.00 may not be seen in the short term.

GBP up on Fresh Brexit Optimism, Crude Oil Record Losses Continue - US Market Open

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, November 13, 2018 – North American Releases

GBP up on Fresh Brexit Optimism, Crude Oil Record Losses Continue - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, November 13, 2018

GBP up on Fresh Brexit Optimism, Crude Oil Record Losses Continue - US Market Open

IG Client Positioning Oil Price Chart of the Day

GBP up on Fresh Brexit Optimism, Crude Oil Record Losses Continue - US Market Open

Oil - US Crude: Trader data shows 84.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.41 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 11 when Oil - US Crude traded near 7372.7; price has moved 19.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.8% higher than yesterday and 20.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.3% higher than yesterday and 18.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. Crude Oil Analysis: Bearish Streak Persists as Trump Jawboning Negates OPEC U-Turn” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  2. Trading Sentiment Poor, USD In Demand | WebinarbyMartin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/CAD, Gold Price & Moreby Paul Robinson , Market Analyst
  4. EURUSD Downtrend Continues, Amplified by German Economic Weakness” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  5. Gold Price Eyeing Further Losses Despite Equity Turmoil” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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